Cardinals Diaspora

Oops!

2007-02-18T20:11:00.000-05:00

You know, nobody likes their bills, but damnit we've got to do it. The old new CD will return shortly, before the end of the 3 day weekend. It seems someone's predictions about deadlines has indeed come to pass, as I've ADDicked myself here. Sorry for the trouble. You know, it's also a good time to see where we were at and what we said about the Cards last spring.

Update Your Links! Diaspora Moving.

2006-02-20T21:19:00.000-05:00

If you've come here, let me first say thanks for your continued support. I've moved the Diaspora to a new location on the web, www.cardinalsdiaspora.com, so update your links if've you got them. also, i'll be getting the RSS online there soon...obviously this is more of a process than I thought. it was also significantly disrupted by a new found PS2 addiction with MVP Baseball 2005.

temporary discomfort

2006-02-20T10:22:00.000-05:00

you may notice some temporary technical problems here at the Diaspora. we're in the process of upgrading, and things have gotten a bit screwy. the migration to word press isn't as easy as promised - stay tuned

Baseball Dada

2006-02-19T08:54:00.000-05:00

Inspired by the opening of the first major Dada art exhibit in the U.S. today, I combined that excitement with the elation of Spring Training getting underway to create my own bit of baseball Dada. Why Mark Mulder? It just seems kind of appropriate, the blank look on his face when he's in the 7th inning of a 6 hitter, with 4 BB and 2 K and a 4-0 lead, probably thinkning about that blonde in the fifth row above third base. If he could truly become Glavine-light, he'd be worth a contract for the next couple years, at the right price. The yellow spots...highlights, of course. Speaking of art fans, I'm pulling for Tyler Johnson to make the roster after reading the article about him on the official site the other day. "I drew it up with a friend of mine. It's an outer space city and the city's being taken over. It's something I designed three or four years ago. It's me. I'm from Southern California, I live near the beach and it's how I grew up...I knew I wanted a tattoo and I wanted something no one else had. Maybe it's a little overboard, but I'm into abstract art and colors. It's something I'm fascinated with, so I wanted it to be my own special one. I wanted it to be unique." Mom, can I get a tattoo?

Haven't I Seen You Before - or - Albert Belle: Tracker

2006-02-17T16:38:00.000-05:00

Turns out that man at the grocery store was Albert "Joey" Belle. Going out on a limb here, but I'm guessing that this pretty much torpedoes his shot at Cooperstown. The Veterans Committee could vote him in later, but there's way too many people and way too little time to stalk all the veterans, or "track" as Belle seems to describe it. But maybe Albert is, once again, being misunderstood. After all, isn't stalking just the Nancy Grace word for trying to track down a significant other and hope that they'll hear the case for having you back? Since that comment just got my named added to the rest of the security watch lists out there, let me introduce an exciting new feature here at the Diaspora: Bad Hops. Bad Hops will feature my favorite personal gaffes by professional athletes over the years. These are more of the Vince Coleman throwing a firecracker (you bet that one's on my list) into a crowd personal screw ups than the nobody showing up at Ty Cobb's funeral because he was such a bastard type stories with morals. Series starts this weekend, because it's five minutes to 5 p.m. on a Friday before a three day weekend so I'll be damned if I'm staying in my office any longer! Have a great weekend.

Preview Season Begins: The Lineup

2006-02-17T13:53:00.000-05:00

The start of Spring Training also means the start of preview season for bloggers, columnists, and all of the other unsavory and "unofficial" types. Thus without further ado, let me make my bold mid-February prediction for the players that will make it onto the 25 man roster come April. Position players, starters (only two limbs to go out onto here) C - Molina, R 1B - Pujols, R 2B - Spivey, R (to start the season); Miles (replaces Spivey around mid-June) 3B - Rolen, R SS - Eckstein, R LF - Bigbie, L/Taguchi, R platoon (contain your excitement) CF - Edmonds, L RF - Encarnacion, R Rotation R - Carpenter L - Mulder R - Suppan R - Marquis R - Ponson/Reyes I really think Reyes will start games this season. It's hard to say if that will happen if at a set point in the summer when/if Ponson falters or tires out, or if he just gets worked into the rotation splitting starts with Ponson as the season rolls on. I'm putting him next to Ponson via slash, and stating that I think they'll both be on the active roster. Surely they would stick Reyes back in Memphis? The Pen R - Isringhausen R - Looper L - Rincon R - Thompson L - Flores R - Nelson R - Reyes/Ponson Bench C - Bennett, R OF - Rodriguez, L OF - Taguchi, R IF - Luna, R (at the expense of Cruz, he's a known commodity) IF - Miles, S Chris Duncan will be the first one up when one of the regular or bench OFs get injured. Last year, La Russa took six benchers to St. Louis in April, but with the 5th starter situation, I tend to believe that he'll carry the extra pitcher. I also wonder if they bring up Travis Hanson if anything happens to Rolen (please God don't let that happen)? Another wonder: If Hanson starts some time, successfully, at 2B in Memphis, as speculated before, they bring him up when the 2B situation starts really stinking with Spivey/Miles? LBoros posts his speculation on the infield and bench situation in the community Spivey projection today. He's going with Cruz rather than Luna as the backup for Eckstein. I still think Luna because of his status as organizational man, but if he ran afoul of Tony or can't contend with La Russa's love for aged role players, he's in Memphis and/or part of a trade package. I see Bigbie as the primary starter in LF, mostly because he's a lefty and that allows TLR to keep the R-L-R-L-R thing from the top thru the middle of the order. Eventhough lots of others are predicting Spivey to hit second, I still think Bigbie gets the nod for that spot, at least for the lion's share (mmm, Lion's Choice) of PAs. I'm honestly not as cynical with Bigbie as I am Spivey; I really think Bigbie might do okay in left and hitting second. If he doesn't work out, I'd rather see Rodriguez in there with his lefty bat, and that would almost definitely mean a platoon situation with Gooch. The seven man bullpen is interesting, and is probably the area most apt to change as spring rolls on. Izzy's a given, as is Looper. Thompson, Rincon, and Flores are 99.9% sure things too. Right now, I think one of the Reyes/Ponson (probably Reyes) slots into the Cal Eldred role. Again, I find myself most frustrated with the high value TLR places on age and experience, even at the expense of talent and ability. I'm too excited to rant though. Interested to hear your feedback.

And They're Off...

2006-02-17T09:11:00.000-05:00

You'll excuse me if I'm just a little overwhelmed at the moment, and the sporadic posting of the last week. This week went from a gentle meander to a deafening roar all at once with pitchers and catchers reporting, fantasy baseball sign up, the opening of the first major Dada exhibit in the U.S., and the DC premier of Neil Young: Heart of Gold. Nervous twitches and turrets outbursts aside, I think I finally caught my breath. Up here, another day of a false spring is upon us, a cruel joke after being snowed in last weekend. Down in Florida (or Arizona if you follow one of those teams) spring is in full force. The players are getting warmed up for the season and answering seemingly endless media queries between the sprints, batting drills, and throwing sessions. Right now, the biggest question surrounding the Cards (besides the usual mulling over about who will make the roster come April) seems to be Mark Mulder's contract status. To be honest, I don't know where I come down on that issue. Part of me thinks that they should lock him up for a couple more years because he's a lefty that can give us solid innings and a decent chance to win games, even if his pitching style fails to excite. Then come the questions of how much money. He's hardly as important to the team as Carpenter, but by current market standards he could easily garner $10M a season. For that, I'd rather have another power arm, which probably comes at a higher price than that come next winter. If Jocketty can lock him up under that price (isn't 2005 Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter playing for $6M a year?), then by all means. Then you have to start looking at how this affects the team's total payroll, which we have been assured will not be increasing substantially anytime soon. You can see where the Mulder contract issue is a minor quandary. And maybe it's my inherently cynical nature, but does anyone else detect a bit of insincerity in Mulder's stated desire to stay in the Lou? Whatever. Let's just hope he gives us one of those contract year performances.

Pitching Pinch Hitters

2006-02-16T15:50:00.000-05:00

I'm a bit late on this, but a two way guy that stinks of Jason Marquis (or Jason Marquis stinks of, whatever), Brooks Kieschnick, for his pitching and pinch hitting ability has called it quits. [hat tip to Brew Crew Ball via Baseball Musings] Brooks had a career G/F ratio of 1.55. Marquis' G/F ratio is 1.59. neither generated much excitement from the mound. How about with the stick you ask. Kieschnick's career BA was .270 compared to Marquis' .310. Useful pinch hitters indeed. Speaking of pitchers who hit and hitters that pinch and pinchers that pitch, the PD caught a little Rick Ankiel fever today, not to mention the headline writer's shared penchant (ha!) for word play around the subject. Beat writer Derrick Goold mulled over the former pitcher's situation as an outfielder within the organization. Most telling in the story are a couple of lines from higher ups, including Jocketty, that demonstrate the organization's belief in and commitment to the 26-year-old. It seems like they intend to try and find a way for him to get through the waiver situation and get him to Memphis for playing time this year. There are lots of people out there who have doubts about Ankiel, but, as cynical as I am, I am not one of them. He's a pure athlete. He's one of those people whose natural athletic ability enables them to pick up and master almost any sport on a whim. In fact, if he tires of baseball this year he'd be a lock to make the Blues. I really believe he will pull it together enough to become a solid bench player at the very least. Think about like this, right now we are considering 28-year-old John Rodriguez as a potential starting OF this year. J-Rod's ability bloomed rather late, and he bounced around the minors until making an impression in Memphis last year. I have to believe Ankiel has the ability to play at that level. We'll see what he does in Memphis this season, but how far away can 2005's second half minor league phenom really be, on a team jammed with glorified platooners for the LF spot?

Leading Men

2006-02-15T12:44:00.000-05:00

I won't explain the meandering thought pattern that got me thinking about leadoff hitters. It had something to do with thoughts about the Cards lineup and a recurring thought about finding a suitable option for the #2 hole. I've often wondered about Eckstein being the #2 hitter, not that he's turning in a poor performance as our leadoff man - far from it. Eck's numbers this year in the clutch, with runners on and in scoring position, exceeded his numbers as leading hitter in an inning (see below). I guess all the talk about outfielders connected with my formative years as a baseball fan watching the Runnin' Redbirds of the 1980s, and I started thinking about the speedy, base-thieving prototypical leadoff man.

Before considering what it would be like to have another Vince "firecracker" Coleman, I thought it would be useful to take a look at what everyone's favorite Li'l Slugger produced for the Cards last season.

2005: .363 OBP, 11 SB, 8 CS, 1.32 BB/K

Somebody must have put a flag on the little guy given the caught stealing numbers, but he measures up as a leadoff man overall. Now, here's the split I referenced above.

Leading off innings: 250 AB, .244/.341/.300, 31 BB, 18 K
Runners on: 211 AB, .336/.376/.479, 14 BB, 12 K
RISP: 126 AB, .373/.420/.571, 12 BB, 7 K

That's pretty damn good. Obviously, he's not ready for the clean up spot, but the man knows there's more than one way to make an impact. He doesn't fit La Russa's mold for the #2 spot, not enough of a power threat for a manager who appreciates the demoralizing effect a homer from the second batter can have on opposing teams. In reality, Eck just can't put up the slugging percentage numbers desirable for a #2 hitter. I could see him hitting in the ninth spot in the AL though.

We can safely say that Eck's got the leadoff skeelz, even if he lacks the flashy speed. Next, I wanted to see what kind of production the Cards got out of the leadoff spot versus their NL counterparts. Below, I ran down the production each NL team got from the #1 spot. Of course, several teams lacked a regular leadoff hitter, while others just didn't have an adequate one. The runs aspect of the information below depends considerably upon the performance of the guys batting after the leadoff hitter, but the OBP is more exclusive to the individual performance of the leading men themselves.

2005 OBP and Runs for the leadoff spot by NL team, and % of total team runs scored:

PIT .368, 99, 14.6%
STL .368, 103, 12.8%
MIL .364, 104, 14.3%
ATL .356, 113, 14.7%
CIN .352, 115, 14.0%
ARI .351, 95, 13.6%
SF .351, 94, 14.5%
WAS .349, 87, 13.6%
SD .341, 97, 14.2%
LA .340, 81, 11.8%
PHI .339, 121, 15.0%
FLA .328, 107, 14.9%
HOU .317, 90, 13.0%
CHI .299, 83, 11.8%
COL .299, 96, 13.0%
NYM .294, 99, 13.6%

The Cards are tied for the top in the NL in terms of OBP from the leadoff spot, but they ranked toward the bottom in terms of the percentage of runs from the leadoff hitter as a percentage of the team's total number of runs scored. The Cubs and Dodgers, the two teams ranked lower than the Cards in percentage of runs from the #1 spot, suffered notably for the lack of a leadoff hitter. Philly, Florida, and Atlanta make up the top of the list. Each of those teams have (or had) notable speedsters at #1 and potent bats after the leadoff hitter.

As you may recall, the injuries had a notable effect on our lineup this year, taking away some of the protection from the #3 hitter, Albert Pujols, albeit slightly. Edmonds' slump and the absence of Walker and Rolen took away 3/4 of the most imposing part of the lineup that could have sent the Li'l Eck into score a few more times. I think this is the primary reason that the Cards had a lower percentage of their runs come from the leadoff spot. Please note, 103 runs is hardly cause for disappointment. If Eck were more of a base thief, that number of runs might be a little higher, but other factors might negate that line of thought too.

The bottom line, Eck is more than adequate at the leadoff spot; in fact, you can say he's pretty damn good. That's not to say a leadoff man with some speedy legs and a shift for Eck into the #2 spot would preclude success. With Rolen back, Pujols being Pujols again, and Edmonds making up a little bit of territory from last year's slump, Eck will continue to be a fine leading man, even if his performance slips just a little bit as the professional predictors are predicting. And we're right back to what comes out of the number two hole (wow, that sounds bad) as the big question for the lineup.

Tomorrow, [or you know like whenever] I'll take a comparative look at Eck against the rest of the NL's leadoff hitters.

WHIP It Good

2006-02-13T16:58:00.000-05:00

I suspect that the Cardinals don't really quake in their cleats at the thought of facing any major league pitcher. They are professionals and professionals go to bat against whoever. However, there are probably a few pitchers around the league that the Birds hold a healthy respect for and prefer not to face them in a close race for the division lead. Here are the five NL starters with the best WHIP against the Cards. I listed Vazquez, who is now in the AL. Pettitte was sixth on the list, so I listed him to make the list the top five starters that will still be in the NL this season. Sheets got 3 starts versus the Cards and lost all of them. His ERA against the Redbirds was still 2.84. Just a little tidbit for you this morning as your thoughts turn to pitchers and catchers reporting on Thursday. Javier Vazquez - 0.33 WHIP (1 GS, 9 IP)* Gavin Floyd - 0.43 (1 GS, 7 IP) Jake Peavy - 0.50 (1 GS 8 IP) Tom Glavine - 0.57 (1 GS, 7 IP) Ben Sheets - 0.72 (3 GS, 22 1/3 IP) Andy Pettitte - 0.80 (3 GS, 20 IP) Coach Walker? I suppose you saw this bit about Larry Walker making an appearance in Spring Training as a special instructor via the PD this morning. He's also a coach for the Canadian team in the WBC, eh. All of this made me wonder if Walker will return to baseball in the next few years on the coaching side of things. It makes sense. The guy obviously had the skills. He also seems to have the temperament to be a good coach, more importantly than the baseball skills. Baseball would benefit greatly with Walker's presence.

Holy Cow!

2006-02-13T10:24:00.000-05:00

I realize that you're probably just now getting ready for your Oscar pool, making your picks, and deciding on what the grand wager will be. It might seem early to start thinking about next year's slate of Academy Awards nominations, but here's a little inside info for you. In the Best Documentary Feature category, go ahead and pencil in, Hello Again Everybody, a look back at the life and times of Harry Caray. Looks like the film will be a summer release, a possible distraction when an air conditioned movie theatre appeals to you more than a humid, 100 degree day game against the Reds in August. Sure, everybody knows Caray for his unique style of broadcasting, but what about Caray the pitch man for Bud or Falstaff, when he was on Chicago's South side? "Ah, what I wouldn't do right now for a plate of barbecue ribs and an ice-cold Falstaff!" Hopefully, good documentarians won't get too hung up on the official nostalgia and leave out gold like that. It remains to be seen. Does Will Ferrell make an appearance?

Sore Thumbs

2006-02-10T12:14:00.000-05:00

In thinking about fantasy baseball this morning, my mind turned to Pirates' SS Jack Wilson and his stand-out 2004 season. Fantasy players and other followers of baseball stat lines really notice those stand out seasons because they come back to burn you the next year, as a gamer or even as a fan. Look at Wilson's 2004: .308/.335/.459, 201 H, 41 2B, 12 3B, 11 HR, 26 BB, 71 K Not too bad, huh? Now let's look at his 2003 and 2005. 2003: .256/.303/.353, 143 H, 21 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 36 BB, 74 K 2005: .257/.299/.363, 151 H, 24 2B, 7 3B, 8 HR, 31 BB, 58 K Jack Wilson had an odd-ball season in 2004, that really sticks out when you look at the rest of his lines versus ML pitching. Now, Wilson's only 28 this season, so he probably doesn't need to retire. It did get me thinking about other players with those big season that stick out like sore thumbs among their major league totals. The one that came to mind immediately from 2005 was the Brewers' Brady Clark. I found a similar perspective over at Rotisserie Baseball Musings. Clark isn't as flukish seeming as Wilson, as his numbers, other than batting average, aren't wildly disparate in every category. Someone else whose 2005 numbers look a little fishy is none other than our own Juan Encarnacion. His 2005 line was: .287/.349/.447, somewhat out of place with the rest of his career, not this subject hasn't gotten its fair share of attention in the land of Cardinal bloggers. How concerned are you if you're a Derrek Lee fan?

The Many Passions of Ozzie Smith

2006-02-10T09:49:00.000-05:00

Trolling the news for content, for bloggers, seems a bit like chasing around Britney Spears, taking pictures of her buying Aqua Net, just waiting for that one moment when you can snap a shot of her endangering the lives of her new baby and fellow motorists by holding the pup in her lap while she drives a car. Nevertheless, you can find interesting stuff out there with a gazillion different media outlets. Ozzie Smith is becoming rather adept at golf, and is playing the in Pebble Beach National Pro-Am this weekend. You can learn more in an interview with The Wizard over at the San Jose Mercury News. If you're not so inclined to read more puff "journalism" today, I'll sum up the dramatic climax of the interview. Asked if he would vote McGwire into the HOF, Ozzie responded in the finest traditions of Congressional testimony:

I don't have a vote. I don't have a vote. I don't have a vote, so I don't know.

Midgets, Disco Records, and Fan Relationships

2006-02-09T15:18:00.000-05:00

I want my warm and fuzzy relationship! Now, if you've been trolling around the internets today, you've no doubt come across some debate about the financial commitment of the Cardinals' ownership and questions about their intentions to sell the team. Today's flurry of activity seems largely to stem from Will Leitch's contribution today at Baseball Prospectus, in which he muses over the business moves being made by the team and the corrosive effect on the relationship with the best fans in baseball. There's not much to add that hasn't already been said, and I said my piece over in the comments section over at VEB, which you have probably already read. I'll summarize my points quickly. Some of these moves, in terms of adding assets such as team-owned media outlets, are they way business is going to be done in the new baseball world (I have more issues as a member of an 'independent' media about the vertical consolidation). The KMOX thing hit Cards fans because it represented the end of tradition, and worst of all it was handled incredibly poorly from a PR perspective. Messing with tradition seems to smack baseball fans more than others. CardNilly echoes the idea of the PR mistakes made by the team this year. My second point, which I stated in the VEB comments section, is that reconnecting with the fan base is going to require a more sophisticated PR/marketing approach, and not complaining to the Post-Dispatch about being unfairly criticized. DeWitt, Jocketty, La Russa, and everybody should be out there working the press - from the big boys in St. Louis to hometown rags and local, small-market TV stations around the geographic base of fandom - explaining decisions, personnel moves and everything else ALL THE TIME. DeWitt should know something about this strategy since he's good buddies with the President, whose staff has successfully used this approach to sell the country a needless war and a whole mess of other stuff. Society has moved beyond baseball PR as charity golf tournaments, promotional days at the stadium, or disco record burnings for that matter. The Cards have simply not gotten themselves to the level of other teams in this regard. You can't approach the best fans in baseball with a "trust us" approach. I'm starting to rant, and that's not what I want to do. There's another really important point to be made here that should resonate with readers of sites like this and the others mentioned above. Baseball and the Cardinals specifically need to recognize the power of new media, such as the blog. (See Leitch's other article today at Baseball Analysts.) The "professionals" offer a very limited perspective, and for the team, a very limited means of reaching fandom. If the Cards want to connect with the diehards and get their messages heard out there, then it's time to recognize what impact bloggers have, at least as much as the paid beat writers - with all due respect to them. Go try to get press credentials through MLB Advance media - which is just going to get you email press releases anyway- you can't do it. If 10,000 people a day read your blog, you're still shit outta luck. To me, this seems incredibly short-sighted. The blogs reach as many or more people - with money to buy things like memorabilia and tickets, demographic research show - as lots of 'official' media outlets. Some teams have gone a lot further recognizing this, you've seen Billy Beane and Omar Minaya show up on fan blogs for their respective teams. Have you seen Jocketty or any other major officials from the Cards 'round the 'unofficial' quarters of the web? Go try to find one instance of Cardinals management give press time to a blogger. Has any other blogger received a polite form email declining or flat-out ignoring their requests for interviews? I bet I'm not alone. Anyway, it's just one small measure for getting the team's message out to fans, but it shouldn't be ignored anymore than stumping in Pottsville.

Hanson in Memphis (mmm bop!)

2006-02-09T10:00:00.000-05:00

Some information regarding Travis Hanson slipped by us in the last few weeks, or it just wasn't all that blog-worthy at the time. The 25-year-old third baseman will start the season with AAA Memphis this year (hat tip to the Springfield News-Leader). If you recall, Hanson's development was delayed a bit by a nasty broken ankle that caused him to miss most of the 2004 season. His line with AA Springfield last year was pretty solid: .284/.347/.458, 20 HR, 97 RBI, 54 BB, 99 K, 546 AB. Considered a particularly strong defender, he got off to a poor start in '05 due to little tentativeness with his ankle. He's blocked at 3B by Rolen for a couple years at least, if Rolen's health holds out. Depending on he performs in Memphis, it could be interesting to see what his future with the team is. Cribbing from some of the info over at the Birdhouse, Hanson played SS in college. Given his likely hitting stats in the majors, it would be difficult to justify him as a corner infielder anyway. However, as a second baseman, he might have much more value. Look for three possible scenarios this year for Hanson, figuring he assumes a normal course of development in AAA this year. One, he stays in Memphis, develops as a player, and makes a run in Spring '07 for a starting spot with the team (this track assumes the normal September call up). Second, he does well and joins the club as a utility infielder this year. Finally, he does well in Memphis and get tossed into a deal Jocketty makes. With the flotsam and jetsam of Aaron Miles and Deivi Cruz behind the quasi-flotsam Junior Spivey, it's unlikely they'll need another keystoner (tee hee) this season. However, if this year's reclamation pick at second, Spviey, doesn't work out, there may be more of a case to search for a solution within the organization. I think we will be able to gleen much more insight once the season begins and we see how Hanson does in Jupiter and whether or not he plays 2B in Memphis. It merits watching.

Tale of Two Teams

2006-02-08T16:43:00.000-05:00

Mets Geek has a piece up today comparing the Mets and the Cards for "class of the NL." While their overall analysis hands that title to Cards, the Geeks find them to be pretty similar teams. Couple of interesting notes here.

The potential difference maker for the Mets would come if the team adds a true second starter. This would give the Metropolitans of Queens the edge over the Cards' rotation, according to the Geeks. I think it would depend on who that acquisition is. Inspired by another Geek article looking at the Mets' starters, I compared the two rotations, finding some interesting similarities and giving the edge to the Birds.
Okay Spivey fans, get ready for this one: Geeks give the hated, underachieving Kazuo Matsui the edge, slightly, over our latest second base rehab project. I might have to agree on this one. Until he proves otherwise, I'm down on Spivey. It's not the most rational position to take, but one good season (2002) does not a star make.

Go check it out, and then see what you think, Cards or the Mets best in the NL?

Flood and Mcgee Honored

2006-02-08T14:31:00.000-05:00

Cardinal greats Willie McGee and the late Curt Flood will be among seven athletes honored this Friday in San Jose at the annual African American Ethnic Sports Hall of Fame (link) induction ceremony. Flood played for the Cards from 1958-1971, and McGee played for the team from 1982-1990 with a second stint from 1996-1999. Both Bay Area natives, they were indispensable parts of the the Cardinal dynasties of the 1960s and 1980s. I loved watching McGee (and the whole team) play in the 80s, and his 1985 MVP season was extra special to see as an awe-struck 9-year-old. When I went off to college, I didn't pay much attention to baseball for few years as other things captured my attention. McGee's return in 1996 played a big part in rediscovering the joy baseball brought me. While I never saw Flood play, I admired him as much as any player from his era because of his willingness to stand up for what was right when tradition was being used as the reason for treating players like team property. He brought the revolutionary spirit of the 1960s into baseball.

"I guess you really have to understand who that person, who that Curt Flood was. I'm a child of the sixties, I'm a man of the sixties. During that period of time this country was coming apart at the seams. We were in Southeast Asia. Good men were dying for America and for the Constitution. In the southern part of the United States we were marching for civil rights and Dr. King had been assassinated, and we lost the Kennedys. And to think that merely because I was a professional baseball player, I could ignore what was going on outside the walls of Busch Stadium was truly hypocrisy and now I found that all of those rights that these great Americans were dying for, I didn't have in my own profession."
Curt Flood

Congrats to both players. You'll always be hall of famers to us Cardinals fans.

Parallel Lines

2006-02-08T09:29:00.000-05:00

Remember what I said yesterday about the potential threat from the Brewers? Yes, lost in an analogy that is entirely too long, but one I was particularly fond of, is a warning for prognosticators to beware the Brewers youth movement forgetting their youth and playing like fierce competitors. For an interesting (scary?) look at what a young team with a few key veterans on it is capable of see this excerpt from Dayn Perry's book, Winners, at FoxSports.com. Sure Koskie is no Terry Pendleton, but Jenkins and Lee fill similar roles. Oh, they've also got someone named Robin Yount on the coaching staff.

Misunderestimation: Ghost World in Milwaukee

2006-02-07T15:54:00.000-05:00

There is a low-level debate taking place right now around the topic of the Brewers' lot in 2006. Some feel like they are a year away from being a playoff team; others say they are a real threat to watch out for in 2006. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick picked them as his 2006 NL Surprise team. The reality is that they probably won't threaten the Cards for best in the Central; however, they're a good team with lots of potential, enough potential that they have to taken seriously. The key here is youth. Two main elements on the team, Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder, are highly touted youngsters looking to complete their first full season in the league this year. The sage wisdom says that they're too young and inexperienced to mount much of a threat to the Cards, Cubs or Astros this year, and therein lies the central aspect of misunderestimation for the Brewers. If the kids on the team, with those two leading the youth movement, forget the rule that their age and inexperience precludes them from winning, watch out. Suddenly the onus of production wouldn't fall exclusively to veterans Carlos Lee and Geoff Jenkins. That's a team that can win a few more games solely on the basis of their offensive production, even with Koskie at the hot corner full time. The pitching staff was effective if criminally unheralded last year. There's an analogy here with the starring cast from the 2001 film Ghost World. Each individual performance was excellent and made for a wonderful film (okay, the writing was pretty damn good too). However, other than Steve Buscemi, nobody else in the film was a marquee name in Hollywood. With Ben Sheets as the young, talented starter who has yet to appear consistently on the A-list, the rest of the cast/rotation delivered incredibly strong performances last season. If that continues this season, Ben Sheets and Capuano and Doug Davis will catapult their names into the minds of critics and fans around the league. One or more of those guys could become pitchers that compete for top billing, just like Ghost World's Scarlett Johansson, without the grrrrrr factor. In mid-September the Brewers were contending with the Astros for the NL Wild Card. Like Oscar hopes for Ghost World, they faded, but the team went home on everyone's radar. This might not be their year to take home Oscar gold in the form of the NL Central title, but they could easily win six or seven more games to get the third place Best Adapted Screenplay statue, otherwise known as the Wild Card.

Age Appropriate, part 2

2006-02-06T20:55:00.000-05:00

Player #1 is Dan Haren and player #2 is Anthony Reyes. I didn't put there numbers side by side to lament Haren's loss. I put them there to take a look at what two similar pitchers might be capable of in their early 20s, and I really intended to make the point that Reyes is ready to pitch in the majors this season. Haren got a pretty sizable chunk of major league innings under his belt as a 22 year old. Remember that 2003 season? Jeff Fassero started games for the Birds that year it got so bleak. Clearly, by his age 24 season last year he was more than ready. Reyes doesn't have that major league experience heading into his age 24 season this year, but he has clearly progressed about as far as he is going to in the minor league system. That sub-4.00 ERA in the PCL is pretty impressive; it's a hitters' league. Looking at the age breakdown, one could also make the case that Reyes might not be ready to start 32 games for the Cardinals this year. Letting a young pitcher assume a full-time starting role from the beginning of the season and going through all the ups and downs of learning to pitch in the league isn't a luxury that a team built to "win now" really has. That explains part of LaRussa's hesitancy to use younger guys like Reyes in the rotation. With Haren they didn't really have a choice, reclamation projects like Simmotacchi burned out in that 2003 season. I don't love the idea of using Ponson and Reyes as starters and bullpen pitchers. Part of it is the reluctance to stick a talented young kid in the bullpen and let his condition fall into that of a one or two inning pitcher. Also, he is only 24, so it's not necessary a now or never scenario either. He does pack tremendous upside, and could come in and have a great rookie campaign that makes everybody tell the person in the seat next to them how lucky we were that Burnett didn't sign with us back in December. Age wise, the kid is ready, and most likely he'll get the chance to prove himself this year in something more than a September call up role. Looking at the stats confirms that LaRussa would rather start an adequate veteran without much 'umph' than a talented young rookie with 'the stuff' and no experience. It's a lot that stupid job experience catch 22 we run into after graduating from college: must have experience for a job, but how the hell can I get that experience if nobody hires me because I'm unexperienced?!? While I generally like LaRussa's managing, this is a major point of disagreement, and if he starts listening to schulbs with blogs we can clash over the point. Again, I think this approach is also brought on by being in a 'win now' situation, which, like everyone's favorite animal lover, has its pros and cons.

Age Appropriate

2006-02-05T21:17:00.000-05:00

You probably thought this was just going to be another dull Monday at the office, lousing your way through the motions until 5 p.m. rolled around as you nurse that Super Bowl party hangover. Nope. Excitement abounds in the Diaspora, as we kick off today's two-parter with a guessing game. Unless you've been too busy trying to figure out why the Rolling Stones are still performing live or even living, it will be pretty easy to guess who these two guys are. Note the emphasis on age being the central factor for analysis, that will be a key plot point when I get Act 2 posted later today. Player #1 In desperation, LaRussa and Duncan asked this 22-year-old hurler to be part of the rotation as injury claimed their bargain basement reclamation projects. With unruly locks of hair flailing from the sides of his cap, this young man admirably stepped up. Although the results of his first exposure to the bigs were less than striking, progress was made. He returned to Memphis at the start of the next season to continue his development at the age of 23, but he returned to the big club to post solid results that year. By 24, this player was deemed fit for a full time major league role, and got his chance somewhere else in strange league where pitchers don't bat. Who is player #1? Age 22 AA: 6-1, 0.82 ERA, 8 GS, 55 IP, 6 BB, 49 K, 8.02 K/9, 0.76 WHIP AAA: 2-1, 4.93 ERA, 8 GS, 45.6 IP, 8 BB, 35 K, 6.90 K/9, 1.27 WHIP MLB: 3-7, 5.08 ERA, 14 GS, 72.6 IP, 22 BB, 43 K, 5.33 K/9, 1.46 WHIP Age 23 AAA: 11-4, 4.15 ERA, 21 GS, 128 IP, 33 BB, 150 K, 10.55 K/9, 1.32 WHIP MLB: 3-3, 4.50 ERA, 14 G (5 GS), 46 IP, 17 BB, 32 K, 6.26 K/9, 1.35 WHIP Age 24 MLB: 14-12, 3.72 ERA, 34 GS, 217 IP, 53 BB, 163 K, 6.76 K/9, 1.22 WHIP ----------- Player #2 seems as level on the mound as the bill of cap, and possess talent very similar to player #1. He breezed through A and AA ball, and found himself in AAA at 23. Clearly, management has been stingy about giving this pitcher much playing time in the major leagues, eventhough he appears to have maxed out what he could do in AAA. Who is player #2? Age 22 High A: 3-0, 4.66 ERA, 7 GS, 36.6 IP, 7 BB, 38 K, 9.33 K/9, 1.31 WHIP AA: 6-2, 2.91 ERA, 12 GS, 74.3 IP, 13 BB, 102 k, 12.35 K/9, 1.01 WHIP Age 23 AAA: 7-6, 3.64 ERA, 128.3 IP, 34 BB, 136 K, 9.51 K/9, 1.08 WHIP MLB: 1-1, 2.70 ERA, 13.3 IP, 4 BB, 12 K, 8.10 K/9, 0.75 WHIP Age 24 ?????????

TrendSpotting

2006-02-03T16:54:00.000-05:00

Have Jocketty & Co. started a new "moneyball" trend? Other teams around the league are scooping up all the "projects," very bandwagonesque. The idea itself makes perfect financial sense in a market gone mad, where Paul Byrd has to deposit his paycheck with a dump truck. The upside of it's huge, see Carpenter, Chris. However, like so many other trends, you kind of have to wonder about some of the actions taken in an effort to keep up, see Simontacchi, Jason. I could be way off here, and this idea has been around for a long time. I don't have the time or energy to research that point and present it in chart form, come on it's Friday afternoon, I shouldn't even be sitting here at this point in the day. If my observation is correct and this is a recent trend, we can start watching for the various extremes of it now. Reactionaries will continue to pay Paul Byrd oodles of money to round out their rotation, and the faithful will continue to sign Simontacchis and Ponsons. It merits some attention.

Simontacchi Sighted

2006-02-03T15:28:00.000-05:00

Simontacchi lives! Former Cardinal starter Jason Simontacchi has resurfaced. Cub Town spots a footnote in the Chicago newspapers reporting the Cubs have signed Simontacchi to a minor league deal. Looks like St. Louis isn't the only place in the NL Central for broken toys. Potential irony alert: Watch for Simontacchi to start for the Cubs as a fill-in for injured pitchers and get the win against Sidney Ponson. Ugh.

Dear Mr. Fantasy

2006-02-03T09:58:00.000-05:00

Exercise your right to pursue nerdiness, and join the Cardinals Diaspora fantasy baseball league! Yahoo! has opened registration for fantasy baseball. As discussed earlier in these pages, I've put together a free league for Cardinal fans, bloggers, and other aficionados. This league is a standard 12 team roto league, so sign up before all the spots are taken. To give this league a little extra identity, I added sac flys and sac hits into the stat categories for hitters as well as batters grounding into DPs for pitchers. Those additional categories add a little flavor Cards fans will be readily familiar with. Below is the league info. To join, head over to Yahoo's fantasy sport page (http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1) and navigate your way to the baseball part of it. When you sign up just enter this league's info, create your team, and it's fun time. The draft will take place on Monday, February 20 at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time. If that time becomes a problem for people, let me know, and we can change it. League name: Cardinals Diaspora League id#: 8894 password: pujols Come ready to compete, in as a much as you can compete wafting through stat reports and spending even more time on the internet. If you're a blogger, even better, we can tie the blogs into the league to talk trash, commiserate, discuss, etc. If demand runs high and you can't get in, leave a comment or email me, and we can add another league. Alright, get ready to rumble, or something like that. Be part of this groundbreaking (?) one-of-a-kind blog experiment that promises to be more fun than the Stanford Prison experiment. Related fantasy question for readers/fans: Do you have a keeper league with an opening OR would there be some interest in starting a keeper league (however one does that)? If so, let me know. Thanks.

Picking Your Friend's Game

2006-02-02T12:21:00.000-05:00

In an effort to further alienate the people in my life, I have been thinking lately about purchasing a baseball video game for the PS2, an Xmas gift. The problem here is that I know next to nothing about baseball video games. I have no history with them from the Atari 2600 to the current gaming system. Therefore, I'm calling out a favor from the Diaspora readership. Please give me your suggestions for a good way to insert even more baseball into my time. This seems like a much better approach than trolling the online reviews or asking the kids at Best Buy. I trust the opinion of the Cardinals fan, eventhough I don't know you, you obviously have good taste as evidenced by your choice of baseball teams to support and your decision to kill precious moments of your life reading the mad ramblings of this blogger. My interest in this goes back to some Flash-based game MSNBC had on their site in the summer of 2004. You were a pitcher and threw sliders, curves, etc. to different hitters in different situations. It was nothing complex, but I could have played it all day. In fact, I think I might have spent more than a few days in an old job playing that game. It's gone now, and there's a hole in my life that needs to be filled. My corporate masters now are a bit less understanding, so this activity will have to be conducted from home via the PS2. I do have a few criteria in game selection. First, I'm not the world's most gifted game player, so I need a game with a relatively low learning curve. The thought of having to manipulate three buttons at a time to pitch intimidates me. Second, I won't be spending more than 3-4 hours a week playing this game. I play casually here and there. That said, I wouldn't mind something were you could go online and play a game or two every now and then. I guess I don't really have any other major criteria. I'm not married to the idea of a game using real Cardinal players, and in fact I have seen some pretty positive feedback on the NCAA baseball game that is out now. Is that one really complex? I know you can't play as the University of Wyoming (undergrad) because they cut the baseball team while I was a freshman, some years back. Oh, one more requirement: the ability to type in childish, immature names. As a young lad I reaped great amusement typing in a-s-s for my Centipede high score on the arcade version that sat in the movie theatre lobby. G-F-L later became my gaming moniker in ironic tribute to Snoop Dogg. Give me your thoughts on this, and help me find a suitable baseball game for the PS2.

Misunderestimation: The Astros

2006-02-01T20:39:00.000-05:00

It seems like every spring when people are making their predictions that the Astros are pretty consistently left out of the mix in the NL Central. Certainly that was the case as teams headed to spring training in 2004. In 2005, they got a little more attention, but few could look back and point to picking them over the Cubs or the Cardinals (who usually were picked as the division's second place finisher). Maybe, I'm wrong here, so, unless you're a rabid Astro's fan who obviously picked your team, please correct me. They have become the very team that embodies the spirit of misunderestimation when it comes to making preseason picks. For the first month or so of the season, the Astros live up to the analysis. Then, somehow, they turn things around, whether it's hiring Garner or trading for Beltran or lighting a fire under Morgan Ensberg's keister. There have been some changes with their team this year, and those Bee Guys are older. New Astro Preston Wilson hit for power to right field, a nice place to have a power alley if you play half your games in Houston with that Seafood Surprise Deck in right. As of now, they've lost Clemens, management refusing to bite the Farve-esque retirement waffle. Clemens may, however, may merely be stalling for time, signing with the team in May to get an extra month of rest after looking gassed by the time the "-ber" months rolled around. If they win the Bagwell insurance battle, they'll have some money to spend. I don't know what they'd spend it on, besides Clemens, but some extra dinero is hardly a liability in today's game. The Houston Spacemen will be back and competitive next year; you can bet on it. The main reason I make this statement confidently: they haven't made any moves that actually weaken their team and the essential components of the 2005 team are back ready to play. They never seem to be a threat, but they always turn out to sting you right on the Ass-tro (cheesy pun, I apologize).

This N' That Again

2006-01-31T16:58:00.000-05:00

Greetings Diaspora-ites. There's just not much going on in the baseball world at all right now, even if you do care about the WBC. That's okay, it's good to take a break from your obsessions, it's unhealthy otherwise. Remember that SNL sketch from the early 90s where William Shatner tells costumed fans at a Star Trek convention to "get a life?" That's kind of what I feel like (one of the fans) roving the net looking for stuff about baseball right now. Besides, today my interests have been focused exclusively on the Academy Award Nominations, because film is a passion of mine that rivals only baseball for my devotion. Oh yeah, and that whole day job thing today. By the way, if you're thinking about your taxes and a good place to donate a little cash in preparation for next year's taxes, I highly recommend community-based non-profit arts organizations, especially film festivals, societies, etc. Here's my favorite. Also, when you become a member of organizations like this you get killer benefits, oh, and you support that whole good cause thing. Sorry, kind of a tangent; I blame the lack of baseball. In news on the official site, the Cards are doing the obligatory mentions of the "competition" for several positions on the team. Obviously, Junior Spivey is the odds on favorite to start at second base, and the cliche about competition is required in the world of competitive sports. It reminds me a lot of junior high football or little league baseball, where the coaches would make the stupid "anybody can win this or that position" talk. In spite of this crap, we all damn-well knew, as did the coaches, who was going to start, and in a small town like mine that usually had as much to do with who a kid's parents were as someone's skill. Uh oh, blood's starting to boil a bit from all the bad memories of youth sports, so I'll stop now. Anyway, don't read too much into the competition for second base or left field or fifth spot in the rotation mumbo-jumbo. Spivey and Ponson are clearly the predetermined favorites, in as much as that can possibly be considered good news. Be sure to check out the Probabilistic Model of Range info for each position at Baseball Musings. Today, Mr. Pinto looked at RF. Back at you later.

Youth Culture

2006-01-30T14:22:00.000-05:00

"Rejoice O young man in thy youth..." -Ecclesiastes The specter of age chases, and catches, us all. In sports age is one of the few constants. It helps observers understand and predict the many factors associated with performance; only in pro sports can you be considered old at age 35. Despite the heavy Biblical quote above, the same one that appears ominously in the opening of Oliver Stone's Vietnam epic, Platoon, youth is a valuable commodity in baseball. Age and the team's lack of youth weighs heavily in discussions about the Cardinals and their fortunes for the 2006 season and beyond. Let's take a look at age for the Cardinals. I lumped players (hitters only this time) into four groups which represent the young, those in and close to their prime, past their prime but still capable of performing, and the old. My groupings are somewhat random, but based around the general consensus that age 27 is when hitters are at their prime, and performance typically declines noticeably each season after age 30. In addition to looking at players' ages, I also wanted to take stock of the guys that are most likely to start and be the prime bench/replacement guys for the 2006 team. This list doesn't include Travis Hanson, Brendan Ryan, etc. from the 40-man roster because they are not likely to play in the majors outside of September call ups. Final note: I went with a player's age at the start of the season, except for the three players I noted below whose birthday falls in April. Rejoicing in their youth: Molina, 23 Chris Duncan, 24 Luna, 26 Pujols, 26 Ankiel, 26 Skip Schumaker, 26 At the top o' the mountain: Michel Hernandez (3rd catcher), 27 John Gall (April b-day), 28 Bigbie, 28 Rodriguez, 28 Aaron Miles, 29 Mid-life crisis: Encarnacion, 30 Rolen (April b-day), 31 Eckstein, 31 Spivey, 31 Cruz, 33 Old man take a look at my life: Gary Bennett (April b-day), 34 Edmonds, 35 Taguchi, 36 Looking at the list, it's clear that age for the overall team isn't the problem. The problem is the age of several key cogs in the team, and the lack of young talent to step in for the aging ones. The most important gray beard is Edmonds, without whom success figures to be hard fought. Super-sub Taguchi's age isn't huge factor given his role (remember Julio Franco is on someone's payroll), but it could be more of an issue if he starts for the Cards this year or even if we have to rely on him for extended playing time during the season. With his history of injuries and style of play, Rolen can be called an old 31, but he's probably got a few good seasons left for the Cards. In my opinion, the lack of talented hitters in their prime is the most glaring red flag for the team related to age. With the notable exception of Pujols, there's not a bat under thirty that could be considered a player in the top third of the talent scale, much less a suitable offensive replacement for Edmonds or Rolen. Bigbie or Rodriguez, the lone (probable) starter is the best of the bunch in the 27-29 year-old category. None of those guys are better than third outfielders or platoon players. You can really laugh at me for saying this, but I think that Ankiel is probably the best outfielder on that list of guys under thirty. We'll see about Gall, but it's telling that the 28 year old has never spent much time in the bigs. Of course Molina is only 23, and he looks to be a backstop that can post above average numbers for a guy at his position. That's definitely a bright spot. Is age an issue for concern? Yes and no, but it hardly poses the threat of undoing the hopes of the 2006 team. That said, if Jocketty does make a big move for a position player, he'd do well to find one under 30 that could be an important part of this year's team and the next several.

Match Game

2006-01-28T10:39:00.000-05:00

Whatever you may think about the Cardinals' rotation, it's got a lot of hopes pinned on it. The burden is pretty evenly distributed across the team, but the rotation, no matter who ends up rounding it out, has to be solid enough to give the Cards a chance to win enough games to capture the NL Central for the third year in a row. In the NL East, the Mets also have their hopes of dethroning the Braves resting, in part, on their starting rotation. The rotations of these two teams share a very similar structure, if not slightly different tasks. Anchoring the rotation for the Redbirds and the Metropolitans, are established right-handed hurlers, aces that rank among the best in the league. Pedro Martinez is older than Chris Carpenter, but both can be counted on for a sub-3.00 ERA, 200+ K, and better than 15 wins. Like true aces, they can wins games for their teams, stealing a few for themselves when the hitters can't get their job done. In the second spot, each team puts out lefties better known for the ability induce grounders than throw the high heat. In his second year with the Cardinals, Mark Mulder hopes to become the Tom Glavine for a new generation. Mulder's off-speed repertoire helped make him an effective pitcher, despite a k/9 rate that dipped to 4.87. Glavine's career k/9 rates varied from season to season, but were pretty consistently below 6.00. He owns a career k/9 of 5.35 to Mulder's 5.80. The remaining spots in each rotation are rounded out with efficient, less-than-exciting starters. Like Suppan, Trachsel has been effective in rounding out the rotation, giving his team some decent starting pitching and the chance to in games. Give me Jeff Suppan over Steve Trachsel. Supe transcended mediocrity a bit last season, and has really taken his game up a notch in the playoffs. Suppan's a few years younger than Trax, too. Marquis and Victor Zambrano fill another spot in each team's rotation. Both guys have potential, but experience some periods of suck-i-tude when they insist on trying to finesse hitters instead of throwing the pitches that have given them success. Finally, each rotation is capped off with something of a question. For the Mets, the question is whether or not to let 27 year old Aaron Heilman start, which he is as of now, or to put him in the pen where he had much success. For the Cards, the question is whether to start the young, talented, and ready for the majors Anthony Reyes or the newly acquired 'project' Sidney Ponson. The resolution to each question could have a significant impact on the success for each team. Over at Mets Geek, they're optimistic that this rotation can unseat the Braves this year. There's little reason not to have a similar optimism that the Cards' rotation can help the team claim the NL Central again.

Rubbing Is Racing

2006-01-27T15:07:00.000-05:00

Fantasy baseball magazines keep popping up on bookstore shelves. They taunt me and fill me with a sensation of eagerness that approached insanity. At any moment I could start scratching and clawing at my face and body, shaking like a junky who hasn't has a fix for four months. So what did I do today? Run out and buy six cartons of Sudafed to cook up some Country Crack? No, I signed up for a NASCAR fantasy team on Yahoo! It was free, and might hold my attention for a few hours in the days leading up to Daytona and before fantasy baseball drafts start. I know next to nothing about NASCAR, but how can anything that draws more than 100,000 people, half of them shirtless, listening to Alabama and guzzling Busch beer by the bucket for every event be uninteresting? ed. note: Before you send me an angry missive about being some kind of elitist, know this: I'm not trying to belittle NASCAR in any way. I actually find it to be very interesting, eventhough I know so little about it. And, personally, though I kid about the shirtless fans guzzling Busch and listening to Alabama, I place myself within the same demographic. In fact, I personally feel that the best way to enjoy a Cardinals game, besides in person, is loafing about on your porch in the summer sun, beer in hand, listening to Mike Shannon call it. The experience is that much better when your porch has a weathered sofa on it so you can lay down, shirtless is fine given the Missouri heat, and catch the game. A close second to this experience would be listening to the game while driving, arm out the window, and enjoying a beverage and smoking a...well, taking in the whole experience. There is just something so wonderfully primal about it. Back to fantasy racing. In the Yahoo! format, you pick three levels of drivers. Level A (pick 2) consists of the big names that win a lot: Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, etc. These are the guys you know from the sports report on the 11 p.m. news. Level B (pick 4) guys seem to perform pretty well, and steal the occasional win. Level C (pick 2) racers don't win much. Picking the drivers was tough because I don't know enough about the sport to make even a quick assessment as to which racers will perform well. I stayed away from Jeff Gordon, since he seems to be somewhat reviled, based on the number of "Calvin pissing on #24" stickers I have seen (or used to see before moving to the city of dullards). In Level A, I took Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle. I didn't know Biffle, but he seemed to perform well. Level B and C were different. Here, my strategy was to take guys whose average finish was better than their average start. I did know that you get a few more points when a guy finishes in a better position than when he starts, so I figured these guys were good enough race car drivers that they had a decent chance of achieving this and even the potential to win a race or two. My Level B guys are: Kevin Harvick, Dale Jr., Dale Jarrett, and Kyle Busch. For Level C I went with Rusty Wallace and Kyle Petty. Daytona (the race not the racy biker magazine) is February 19. I'll know more afterward. If anyone out there has any feedback on NASCAR drivers that might be better picks, I welcome it. For the baseball fans who read this site strictly out of baseball interest, I'll be back later tonight or tomorrow morning with a baseball post. Fellow fantasy enthusiasts, remember, it's good to have an open mind to new games, and new ways to get a fix. Give racing a try; it's free, which is a damn good argument for getting a team. Just remember, if you a team called "East Coast Liberal Elite" pushes you out of way heading into the turn, you were warned. Oh, by the way, earlier this month I had a post about a Cardinals Diaspora/blogosphere fantasy baseball league, and I got comments and emails from a few readers with interest. There was enough interest that I am going to set up a league (or two) when the time comes. Sign up for leagues on Yahoo! and CBS start within the next few weeks, so stay tuned for details.

Backtracking through the Central

2006-01-26T11:59:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, I looked at how our new 8th inning setup man, Braden Looper, has fared against the teams in his new divisional home. Today, let's expand our insight by examining how Looper's predecessor, Julian Tavarez held up versus the NL Central during his tour with the Redbirds (2004 & 2005). vs. Astros total: 16 G, 0-2, 2 SV, 15.6 IP, 4.60 ERA, 12 BB, 10 K, 17 HA, 8 ER, 1 HR at HOU: 7 G, 0-2, 2 SV, 4.6 IP, 11.57 ERA, 5 BB, 3 K, 8 HA, 6 ER, 0 HR vs. Brewers total: 17 G, 1-1, 1 SV, 17.3 IP, 2.08 ERA, 1 BB, 13 K, 17 HA, 4 ER, 0 HR at MIL: 8 G, 1-0, 8.6 IP, 1.08 ERA, 0 BB, 3 K, 8 HA, 1 ER vs. Cubs total: 14 G, 1 SV, 9.3 IP, 2.89 ERA, 4 BB, 6 K, 7 HA, 3 ER, 1 HR at CHN: 5 G, 3.3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HA vs. Pirates total: 19 G, 0-2, 1 SV, 14.6 IP, 3.07 ERA, 2 BB, 12 K, 20 HA, 5 ER, 1 HR at PIT: 9 G, 0-2, 1 SV, 6.6 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2 BB, 5 K, 9 HA, 2 ER, 0 HR vs. Reds total: 18 G, 2-2, 1 SV, 14 IP, 3.86 ERA, 4 BB, 14 K, 12 HA, 6 ER, 0 HR at CIN: 11 G, 1-2, 1 SV, 7 IP, 5.14 ERA, 4 BB, 5 K, 7 HA, 4 ER What I found to be the most interesting is that Looper's pitched pretty effectively against Houston, much more so than Tavarez. Looper owns a H/9 rate lower than 1.0 against Houston overall and at Enron Minute Maid Field, where he has never given up a home run. Tavvy on the other hand did not fare as well against the Spacemen. It should be noted that Julian's performance against the Astros was a tale of two season, with a showing in 2004 far better than 2005. Tavarez was fine against the Cubs, but didn't pitch as much against them as he did the other NL Central teams. Being too lazy to go back and look it up, I'm jumping to the conclusion that LaRussa had a reason for using him more as a one out specialist than a full inning reliever versus the Small Bears. Looper, with an ERA slightly high for a reliever, has been moderately successful against the Cubs. The Houston split still grabs my attention more than the others though. Don't forget Houston, outside of the switch hitting Berkman, has a lineup that leans heavily to the right side, Looper's strength even in off-years. How much does the 2005 NLCS loss still burn? I have to think that Looper's line against Houston was part of the justification in signing him with the assumption that his 2005 season totals and his numbers versus lefties can be ironed out at the Dave Duncan health spa for pitchers not living up to their potential. It's not a stretch to assume that the Cards view Houston as their biggest challenge within the division and maybe within the larger National League.

Looping through the Central

2006-01-25T16:27:00.000-05:00

Braden Looper has pitched in the National League (interleague play aside) since his career began with the Cardinals back in 1999. All of the other new pitchers added to the 40-man roster this offseason came from the American League, with the exception of Juan Mateo, a Rule-5 addition, who has no major league experience. I wanted to look at how the new arms have done versus out NL Central opponents, but I ended up focusing on Looper because he has thrown the most innings versus the teams in our division. Ponson and Rincon haven't seen much service time against the other NL Central teams, in fact they have never faced a some of them at all, so I left them out of the mix, for now. Looper is our new $3 million per year 8th inning set-up man, so he figures to see lots of action in the 60 or so games against divisional opponents. Since he has faced each of the NL Central teams a fair number of times in his career, we can get an idea of his performance versus them. Presented here are his overall stats against each team and the split for their home parks. Let's go to the stats. vs Astros total: 24 G, 1-1, 4 SV, 33.3 IP, 2.16 ERA, 15 BB, 19 K, 27 HA, 8 ER, 0 HR at HOU: 8 G, 1 SV, 9.6 IP, 4.66 ERA, 4 BB, 6 K, 13 HA, 5 ER vs Brewers total: 19 G, 2-1, 6 SV, 22.3 IP, 3.22 ERA, 9 BB, 12 K, 24 HA, 8 ER, 2 HR at MIL: 7 G, 4 SV, 7.6 IP, 3.52 ERA, 2 BB, 3 K, 10 HA, 3 ER, 1 HR vs Cubs Total: 22 G, 0-2, 4 SV, 25 IP, 4.32 ERA, 12 BB, 13 K, 24 HA, 12 ER, 2 HR at CHN: 11 G, 0-2, 2 SV, 13.3 IP, 4.72 ERA, 9 BB, 7 K, 13 HA, 7 ER, 1 HR vs Pirates total: 17 G, 0-1, 5 SV, 19 IP, 2.84 ERA, 9 BB, 11 K, 22 HA, 6 ER, 1 HR at PIT: 5 G, 0-1, 2 SV, 5 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1 BB, 6 K, 5 HA, 2 ER, 1 HR vs Reds total: 23 G, 0-1, 8 SV, 22.6 IP, 5.56 ERA, 10 BB, 22 K, 25 HA, 14 ER, 6 HR at CIN: 6 G, 0-1, 4 SV, 4.6 IP, 11.57 ERA, 1 BB, 3 K, 11 HA, 6 ER, 3 HR Looper averages out to a little over a hit per inning against each team. It would seem that none of these teams really quiver in fear when Looper comes into the game. Encouraging is his performance against Houston, notice he hasn't given up any homers to the Astros. His ERA is a little high at Minute Maid, but can Brad Lidge say he hasn't surrendered any homers there? No Central team has done much damage to him with the long ball, except for the Reds, who murdered him with the long ball. Only half of the homers Looper gave up to the Reds came at Great American Ballpark too. Adam Dunn claims two of those home runs, confirming our reservations about his ability to face lefty sluggers. Of course, it will be important to revisit these numbers again at the end of the 2006 season, the idea being that TLR and Duncan's pitcher improvement program (patent pending) will start make the numbers look a little better, versus the NL Central teams and throughout the entire league. Do you get the feeling that Duncan and TLR really have their work cut out for them this season? And here's another question, with so much time devoted to so many "projects," will the coaches and staff have time to focus on winning a championship? Well, let's just hope we don't continue to give Adam Dunn reason to smile much in 8th innings this year.

Misunderestimation: Cincinnati Surprise

2006-01-25T09:23:00.000-05:00

Starting new ideas is nothing out of the ordinary, but with a bad case of adult ADD (so diagnosed by a pharmaceutical company's website), the follow through gets me every time. In an effort to break that tendency, without the assistance of pricey prescription drugs, I am continuing my "Misunderestimation" pre-preview series. Today, the focus turns to the Reds, the Cincinnati Surprise. As currently structured, it is tough call to predict whether this team or the Pirates will rule the Central cellar. Given that the Reds scored 820 runs last year, they probably don't have to pick up any allergy medication to deal with the damp and moldy conditions in the NL Central basement. Moving beyond their propensity to score runs in a lineup built around the bat of one Adam Dunn, you get to a pitching staff (and a home park) that pads stats for even the most feeble armed of batters around the league. Seriously, how does Eric Milton even venture outside between the hours of 8 a.m. to 11 p.m. without having rocks, tomatoes, or dog feces thrown at his car? Besides an ability to score runs (runs do have something to do with winning games as you may recall after watching the NLCS last season), the new ownership may be the most important factor in this teams ability to win a few more games this season. New owner Robert Castellini immediately 86'd GM Dan O'Brien. Committed to winning, the new ownership will hire a GM (DePodesta?) with the mandate that the team begin the process of becoming a winning force in the Division. This will include, as you have no doubt already concluded, trading some of their hitters for capable pitchers, not prone to the long ball, with a decided emphasis on younger guys, I assume. If a move comes this spring, (Get Up, Baby! already has one in mind) the Reds could manage to win a few more games than they did last year. This won't make them a threat to take Central crown from the Cards, but another spoiler always makes things interesting. In a close race for the division, a September series with the Reds (or Pirates) might have a little more significance than a way to pass time until the playoffs start.

Pen, Rubber Room...It's All the Same

2006-01-24T21:07:00.000-05:00

Okay. It took me a little longer to finish was I was writing. This particular piece of work fails to come easy, like say, writing about how you want to see Anthony Reyes in the starting rotation. Self promotion doesn't come easy to most, which makes something like a cover letter a more difficult exercise than one expects. Anyway, back to baseball. Rant time. I'm working on another post, but when I saw this on the Cards' official site I knew it couldn't pass without comment. Beat writer Matthew Leach opens the mailbag and the first question probes the six starter issue. Leach responds:

I wouldn't expect a trade, though it's not impossible. If Anthony Reyes wins the spot, odds are that Ponson would be sent to the bullpen, something he's said that he's open to. If Ponson wins out, you might see Reyes in the bullpen, though I'm not sure that would be the organization's first preference. I think what you might see is Reyes headed back to Memphis to start every fifth day there, where he'd be at the ready if anything happened to one of the other five starters. It's a good problem to have.

Good news, bad news to take away from this. The bad, Anthony Reyes gets exiled for a ground balling, control guy that can work well with the offense through 32 starts and pull out 15-16 wins, rounding out a control oriented staff that won't find much success in the playoff environment. Listen, I realize Reyes is young, but come on, at some point all the "projects" becomes farcical, "Washed Out Major Leaguer? Come on Down to Walt Jocketty's Health and Fitness Spa, the Gateway to a Bigger Contract in Your Future." Whatever. The good news, at least they don't want to stick Reyes in the pen. I got $10 that says the kid gets traded, sure maybe Marquis gets shopped and swapped too, but start reviewing all the 35 year olds around the league. Good problem to have? Yeah, sure, in the post-modern paradigm every perception holds some form of truth, so maybe it is a good problem to have. Okay rant over. I feel better, if not a little tired. Oh so tired. Going to spend a little time watching film, a passion equaled only by Cardinal baseball. Mean Streets has a particular appeal after reading that.

Status and Youth

2006-01-24T09:19:00.000-05:00

Greetings loyal platoon of readers! Quick update of some Diaspora happenings. I've got a major project in the realm of real life going on right now, and am forcibly denying myself baseball until I finish it, which should be by this afternoon. Sometimes procrastination is the only way. Hey, I work better under pressure, or so the old excuse goes. Following this project, I'll be finishing up a post for this evening, so you late night readers can have something to do while you watch the Discovery Channel fill its educational programming requirements. Here's something for a talk amongst yourselves activity in the meantime. Let's say July rolls around and things are going well for the Cards, all six starters are doing well, Big-Rod (the LF combo of Rodriguez and Bigbie) is producing, the Encarnacion naysayers prove to be wrong, nobody's injured, and even old Junior Spivey is playing like it was 2003...what kind of trade should Jock make? My instincts tell me to go for a hard throwing number two starter, but what about the other options? This might be a good opportunity to get a talented young player(s) that would beef up the farm system. Jock could trade Marquis or Supe or whoever to an AL team in the midst of a close playoff run for a 22-23-or so year old AAA blue chipper, hitter or pitcher whose impact would be felt in 2007 or 2008. Of course, this impact could be using the kid in an offseason trade, but still you get the idea. I don't know. Just a quick thought to chew on as your day drags on.

Grueling Offseason

2006-01-23T13:39:00.000-05:00

I think we all struggle with what to do with ourselves as the days and weeks turn into months without baseball. Cardinals fans starved for the team and the game we love have found little in the way of team news these last few weeks to sustain our obsession. Watching four football teams you could care less about battle for a trip to Detroit hardly represents a healthy alternative to a steady diet of baseball, and the pathetic tailspin of the St. Louis Blues only makes your longings for a winning team to cheer for that much harder to bear. All of this makes maintaining a year-round website devoted to a seasonal sport difficult. Nevertheless, Cardinals Diaspora aims to inform and entertain. While the caloric content has left us unable, for the moment, to provide our faithful readers with much insightful analysis, we will provide you with a marginally nutritional gruel comprised of sawdust, circus animal remnants, and childish humor. To that end, today’s entry is all about Cardinals versus Cardinals, a random look at how current members of our pitching staff (these are the only ones on staff to have pitched against the Cardinals in their careers) have fared against the Birds on Bat. This posting lacks any kind of thesis or argument; it merely satisfies a sick curiosity. In fact, it is an exercise akin to laughing at the bad haircuts and dated couture of your high school yearbook. Enjoy. Jason Isringhausen – Izzy faced the Cards in his early days as a starting pitcher with the Mets. This line must have helped make the case for Izzy in the pen. Career vs. STL: 4 G, 4 GS, 0-3, 8.66 ERA, 1.75 WHIP Braden Looper Career vs. STL: 16 G, 1-0, 3 SV, 17 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP Jason Marquis – Hmmm, in 2007 we may see additional stats of Marquis versus the Cardinals. Career vs. STL (so far): 3 G, 1 GS, 1-0, 8 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.63 WHIP Sidney Ponson Career vs. STL: 1 G, 1 GS, 1-0, 1 CG, 7 HA, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 1.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP Ricardo Rincon Career vs. STL: 15 G, 14.3 IP, 6.91 ERA, 1.81 WHIP Jeff Suppan Career vs. STL: 6 G. 6 GS, 2-2, 4.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Worldly Baseball

2006-01-19T13:12:00.000-05:00

The World Baseball Super Fantastic Happy Funtime Tournament (also know as the tournament where a team is sure to see on of their high salaried players get injured and torpedo their playoff hopes) must be a boon to genealogy researchers, both professional and amateur. With the news that Kirk Saarloos is playing for the Dutch team, I started thinking about which teams I could play for. My last name is Van Bibber, so the Dutch team would be on the list. I thought about moving to Canada and I like hockey, so I could probably swing that one. If France, Ireland, and the Ukraine had teams, my ancestry would just about be covered, and I'd have some serious reflection to do. And what about the political implications of the tournament, the whole Cuba issue aside? Colonialism's ugly legacy hangs over almost all of the countries playing in the tournament. For instance, Andruw Jones is playing for the Netherlands, but is actually from Curacao, an island nation in the Caribbean once included among Holland's imperial holdings. Doesn't that seem a little weird? Would players form Mexico (or Venezuela, Panama, or the Dominican Republic) want to play for a Spanish team? Seems unlikey. Puerto Rico is another example. Puerto Rico, which does have a healthy independence movement, was seized by the United States from Spain in the Spanish-American War, in a late 19th century move to build its own empire. In addition to an independence movement, Puerto Rico has a movement championing 51st statehood, and players from there could technically play for three teams. I'm pulling for independent Puerto Rico. In fact, while I still don't care much about the whole thing, I'm throwing my complete support behind Puerto Rico. Here's another political issue, what about China (as in Mao's China) playing Taiwan (as in Chiang Kai Shek's China) playing each other in the first round pool play? Seems like it could be pretty dicey given that mainland China still views Taiwan as a "rebel" province, and has lots and lots of nuclear missiles pointed at the island nation. Here's a better solution. Put baseball back in that other big international sports competition, the Olympics, and let the teams send their best and brightest amateurs to play against each other.

Beating the Dead Horse Some More and Again

2006-01-18T20:27:00.000-05:00

Just when you thought bloggers had all tired with detailed, microscopic analyses of the Cards' hot stove moves...NO. Not this day. And I'm not talking about all the lamenting that will happen in July when you still see Larry Bigbie and Juan Encarnacion penciled in on your scorecards as you sit and wait for the game to start. On the news that the Cards avoided arbitration with Marquis, the assumption still stands that Jocketty makes a swap for an outfield bat. Maybe not, though. Although Encarnacion et al fail to send shivers of excitment through the veins of all but the most meth addled of Cardinal fans, the offense is pretty much set. And with Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen (health permitting) and Eck the lineup is competitive enough to win games and most likely lock up the NL Central. My question is whether or not Jocketty's move would be to shore up the rotation. Yes, I know we have six potential starters right now, but if a reasonable move can be made to bring a hard throwing, top three starter to the team, you have to think Jock would pull the trigger. His stated desire in the off season was to improve the rotation; remember that whole Burnett saga? What would make you think that has suddenly changed? The addition of Ponson? I don't know. I'm probably too tired to process much more tonight, but I think adding a pitcher of that caliber might be a better move than adding another outfielder, as much as I refuse to get excited about Bigbie and Encarnacion. Thinking about the rotation as is, it probably is not good enough to earn the team an invite to the World Series, wouldn't you agree? A Barry Zito or a comparable pitcher might be more of a key to a competitive team in October.

Misunderestimation: The Pirates

2006-01-18T10:03:00.000-05:00

I've decided to make "Misunderestimation" a series, a backhanded look at our NL Central competition, a warning to fellow prognosticators, and something of a pre-preview. Today, maybe because I'm a little pressed for time this morning, Diaspora covers the Pirates. The veritable Pittsburgh Platter of the division. Not to be overly derisive, but there is very little to underestimate about the Pirates. They don't stand to contend for the division title, and even Pirates' front office has conceded that goal. Instead, the Pirates organization is looking to tug the bootstraps a little harder and win a few more games. With some pretty good young talent filling out the ranks, that goal seems entirely possible. The biggest key to their success is Jason Bay. Through the winter, the team has traded and acquired a lineup that will afford the young phenom the best protection he has ever had. Last year the guy had 32 homers and a .961 OPS. Through the same season he had a WARP3 of 10.6 and 32 win shares. With Sean Casey and rookie Chris Duffy (a good OBP guy) in front of him and Burnitz hitting directly behind him, it stands to reason that Bay's bat will have a few additional ducks on the pond to bring home and see some decent pitches to hit with a moderate threat like Burnitz behind him. Okay, maybe I'm being a bit Pollyanna-ish on this, but Jason Bay is good, really good, the kind of player you can build teams around. He came to Pirates in the Giles trade, and given his age, Bay made that a great deal. Anyway, the Pirates stand to pick up a few wins more wins this year, and can certainly play the spoiler's role in a tight race for the division between the Cards, Cubs, or Astros.

Pointing Fingers

2006-01-17T09:31:00.000-05:00

LaRussa "fingered" the 2006 batting order at the awards dinner last night. The skipper raised four fingers and pointed at Edmonds when a reporter asked the slugger a question about hitting the first dinger in Busch 3 implying JEd would be in the second spot. Tony then raised five fingers and pointed at Rolen. Hitting fourth, a good spot for JEd according to Hummingbird's analysis at VEB, should help to boost Jimmy's numbers from last year. Looking at his stats it seems things were in line with career norms except for a decline in his total number of hits. He'll obviously have some decent protection behind Albert and ahead of Rolen*. Now who's in the two hole, Spivey or Bigbie? Ugh. (I'm going to be "hatin'" on Spivey until he provides me with a reason to do otherwise. Deepest apologies for using the term "hatin'."

Soft Reactions

2006-01-16T20:28:00.000-05:00

My obligatory reaction to the Jeff Nelson signing: meh... It's a minor league contract, and the guy has to pitch his way onto the team in the spring. More than anything, this seems like the Bill Pulsipher story updated for 2006. Yeah, it doesn't have the same Horatio Alger like stuff associated with it, but you get the idea. I was looking at the pictures of the Winter Warm-Up, it seems like adults really go in for the autographs more so than the young-uns. Hopefully, these are the "reconnecting with their youth" adults fans as opposed to the "must sell shit at local card conventions" greedy adults. Couple other observations, John Gall looks refreshingly more like an audience member on CSPAN's "Book TV" than a pro baseball player. Fredbird flashed a gang symbol - on further review it's just a thumbs up. It'd would be cool to meet Walt Jocketty ("Juan Encarnacion!? What were you thinking?!"), but who cares about is autograph.

Getting Physical

2006-01-16T11:15:00.000-05:00

After an appearance at the Cardinals' Winter Warm-Up, Sidney Ponson has picked up a little ink in the hometown fishwrap and around the internet. He grew his hair out. He sees a counselor. He's in the mix for the fifth starter role in the Cardinals' rotation. As much as I really, really hate to see Anthony Reyes relegated to purgatory in Memphis or even the bullpen, hopefully Ponson finds his talent again and whips the personal scourge of alcoholism. While Ponson's efforts to stay alcohol free garner the most attention in a modern media valuing personal stories more than news, I think the other major factor that has to happen for Ponson to pitch well again is for him to get in tip-top shape. Ponson needs to work on his conditioning so that he can get his fastball back to the 92-94 MPH range and pitch into the sixth or seventh inning, if he starts. If his physical conditioning is where it should be for an athlete being paid a million bucks or more, then he won't be leaving pitches up in the zone as a result of sheer exhaustion. He can throw the off-speed stuff and a fastball and a slider with a little velocity. An Orioles fan friend of mine at work, tells me that Ponson's success in 2003 revolved around a slider. If he is off the hooch and really working hard on conditioning, there's reason to believe that he can, at the very least, get back to 2003 shape, maybe better. I still argue Reyes should have a starting spot.

Misunderestimation

2006-01-13T16:18:00.001-05:00

“If” Best explained by Principal Skinner to Homer in an episode of The Simpsons, the definition of the word is, “A conjunction meaning ‘in the event that’ or ‘on condition that.’” It’s not a big word with a complicated definition, but it’s a word used frequently around the baseball blog world. I read the word thousands of times each day in sentences, paragraphs, and articles on blogs and sites everywhere around the web. Encountering the word rarely raises a red flag for me. Lately, however, something has made stop and take notice of it. Articles forecasting the fate of the Cardinals and other teams have started to pop up across the web, probably an inevitable consequence of the hot stove hubbub settling down. While very informative (but perhaps a bit early), these articles, entries, etc. are filled with the word “if”. In fact, the word forms an indispensable plank of the very thesis at the heart of any such prognostic writing. The “ifs” in these articles, the actual word and the statements based on the conjunction, bother me because I think they’re being used to draw incomplete and misleading conclusions. Getting right to the “if” bothering me the most, let’s turn to the Cubs, the starting rotation in particular. While easy to write off Dusty Baker’s Cubbies, I caution any commentator away from doing so based on the assumption that the Small Bears’ starters will be injured. In fact, responsible prognosticators will offer them the benefit of the doubt and assume that Cubs’ starters will indeed be healthy. Upon granting them health in any predictions, you will quickly notice that this is a pretty gol derned good starting rotation. Let’s review. Mark Prior is arguably among the most talented pitchers in the game right now. For my money, I’d still take Prior over Oswalt. However, many think only of the injuries when thinking of the 25 year-old. Prior had to deal with injuries before the season started, and missed virtually all of June after taking a liner off his elbow at the end of May. He still managed to start 27 games. Down the stretch, he wore down and couldn’t go very deep into games. This, no doubt, resulted from poor conditioning sometimes caused by lengthy stints on the DL, and of course Dusty’s insistence that pitchers pitch till their arm falls off the body. Rather than presuppose injury for 2006, I’m going take the view that Prior comes back healthy and pitches 30 games. Just as I would expect commentators to extend Carpenter the same assumption. When Mark Prior is leading your rotation, you’re going to win some games. He’s the kind of pitcher that can steal victory from the jaws of defeat; a team of eight Neifi’s could win some with Prior on the mound. Carlos Zambrano fills the second spot, making the rotation even stronger. This head case was particularly effective versus the Cards last year, going 3-0 in 4 starts with a 1.10 ERA. To quote a famous TV star from the 1990s, “whoa.” Not to mention, Zambrano started 31 games or more and pitched over 200 innings each of the last three seasons. He might be impervious to the Dusty treatment, seriously negating the injury assumption for prognosticators. Maddux is old, but damn near invincible. Even in a 2005 that was considered an off-year, he only walked 36 batters. It’s pretty safe to say that the old man has still got much of it. The one that really makes predicting an “iffy” affair, is Kerry Wood. Wood has not been able to start a full season since 2003. (2003 must have been a really magical season for the Cubbies. Oh wait.) Assuming Wood is injured is a pretty safe bet, and the prediction is just based on established trends in his career. (Cub fans might say the same thing about Rolen.) Injury guru Will Carroll recently offered his opinion that Wood pitches no more than 140 innings. Suppose he does pitch 140 innings, and pitches effectively in most of these games. If that’s the case, throw in a replacement level starter for the 10 starts Wood can’t make and a fifth starter somewhere just north of replacement level to round it out, and you’ve got a formidable rotation of pitchers. Better than a Clemens-less Astros rotation, and arguably the best in the NL Central. My point here is not to say that the Cards cannot possibly win the division against such odds. All things considered, I’d still pick the Redbirds to claim that prize, completely biased fan perspective aside. Simply put, I want to caution my fellow Redbird fans away from writing off the competition, particularly in the face of a Cubs’ starting rotation with such potential.

Supporting Pitch

2006-01-11T09:47:00.000-05:00

Sometimes, there's no better feeling than when another voice, particularly that of an expert, seconds an idea or suggestion that you're passionante about. When that person seconds your opinion without prior knowledge of your statement, all the better. Thus, in the spirit of "I told you so," allow me to point out Bryan Smith's opinion, expressed today in his top 75 prospects run down at Baseball Analysts, of Anthony Reyes and what role the young righty should fill on the 2006 Cardinals.

As a Cubs fan, I really like Sidney Ponson all the sudden. Yes, he just signed with the Cubs rival, but I'm really hoping he wins a rotation spot in Spring Training. Why? Because it blocks Anthony Reyes, who the Cardinals should have simply all-but-guaranteed a spot. After four unimpressive and inconsistent seasons at USC, Reyes has blossomed with the Cardinals now that he has found himself healthy. Starting his pro career in 2004, Anthony has flown through the system, and even impressed the Cardinals with a call-up in 2005. However, St. Louis remains reluctant to give the 24-year-old a rotation spot, which is just fine with the Cub fan in me.

Ahh, damn it feels good to be right. But it's a short-lived and potentially pyrrhic victory, as our beloved Cardinals are the ones likely to suffer by starting more recycled pitchers instead of legitimate talent.

Sutter It Is!

2006-01-10T14:18:00.000-05:00

Congrats to Bruce Sutter on being the lone pick for the HOF this year. From 1981-84 he anchored the Cardinals' bullpen, registering 127 saves. In 1982 he helped the Cards win their last World Championship, pitching 7 2/3 innings in four games of the World Series that year, posting a win and two saves. Not to mention the contribution his beard made to the team's intimidation factor.

Hall of Fame Facial Hair

2006-01-09T20:21:00.000-05:00

The Hall of Fame voting results get announced tomorrow, and the big question is whether or not Bruce Sutter and/or Goose Gossage, two of the game's best relievers, will get some love from the BBWA. Alright, let's put aside all the issues of career longevity, stats, the BBWA disdain for the save, and all the other issues around HOF voting. For these two, the issue boils down to one thing and one thing only-hair. Both hurlers are notable for their follicle contributions as much as they are for cutters, saves, and ninth inning heroics. Have a look for yourself. Goose did for soup strainers in baseball and throughout society what Spinal Tap did for fans of improvisational jazz. Sutter looks absolutely feral, Jeremiah Johnson, a wild man ready to howl at the moon and eat a raw buffalo heart. Batters can't get a hit off the guy because they're too scared the pitcher will gouge their lungs out with a deer antler handle Bowie knife. Let's hope Cooperstown makes 2006 the year baseball rewards cutting-edge hair fashion and the trendsetters who made it possible.

The Gift That Keeps on Hurting

2006-01-09T13:11:00.000-05:00

With a birthday coming up in a couple weeks, I've been in something of a reflective mood. Because this birthday marks the beginning of one of those named decades in a person's life, like your "twenties" (soon gone for yours truly), that reflection might easily turn to brooding were it not for the positives of a great wife, wonderful family, my health, yada yada yada. Given a pretty good situation overall, I felt marginally justified in spending a little of that reflecting time answering the question of just what I might find to be a welcome gift for the occasion. I think for adults men finding gifts is a bit challenging. I outgrew action figures in the 11th grade. Really, the best gift would be enough money to retire early, say at 30. Given the rather unrealistic possibility of that, I perused the Cards' official online shop to find something that might be a suitable replacement for twenty years of work-free bliss. What did I find? While thinking about maybe getting a customized "Bartman 03" jersey (eventhough the karmatic implications of such a thing would be heavy indeed), I came across something that possessed even more entertainment value. Lo and behold, the official J.D. Drew Replica jersey!!! Now you can relive your favorite J.D. Drew moments, such as: - His sixth career stint on the DL in August of 2003 with an oblique injury. - Tendinitis in right knee from late June thru mid-July of 2002 - A lower back sprain in August of 2001, And many, many more of your favorites, which are sure to be some of LaRussa's favorites too. Maybe, I'll just ask for a gift certificate, unless the Cub fans I know have already chipped in for a Juan Encarnacion jersey. On second thought, maybe the Drew jersey would be better after all.

Brush with Greatness

2006-01-07T20:46:00.000-05:00

Reading around the Card blogs this weekend, I saw a couple of comments around Leach's story about John Rodriguez' line from Winter Ball in Puerto Rico. Rob at the Birdwatch gives readers a look at how those stats might translate in terms of major and minor league ball in the regular season, and Erik makes a case for Rodriguez in the field at PAH9. I had kind of hoped that Rodriguez would play his way into a full time, starting gig with the Cards. [I hoped to see Rodriguez as the third OF'er, and Giles or Wilkerson as the other OF not named Edmonds. We got Juan Encarnacion.] Like Erik, who is going to a Cardinals Caravan event staffed by Rodriguez, my reasons are primarily based on a deep personal connection with the 28 year-old NYC native. You see, when the Cards were in DC this summer, I went down to the dugout before the game that Sunday afternoon, joining hordes of little kids in waiting for players to autograph something for me. Unlike the children, I bitched rather loudly about the insufferable heat and humidity. Nevertheless, we represented a determined bunch, and when Matty Mo stuck his out of the dugout it looked like our persistence my be rewarded after all. Nope. Just two kids were able to get the once great starting pitcher's signature before some old man pushed his way forward, children falling aside as his forward movement and sweat soaked Tommy Bahama shirt cleared him a path. Matty Mo signed whatever it was the middle aged man slipped across the dugout's concrete roof, exchanged a few words, and slipped back across the divide separating the professional athletes from adoring fans. I slid back from the dugout a bit, shamed to be an adult. The old man in the exotic print rayon shirt marched back to his seat, pleased at his entitlement, and probably thinking about how much he could sell the newly autographed memorabilia for on eBay later that week. Just then, John Rodriguez appeared, and in a tone that would almost seem surly if you didn't know he was a New Yorker, he started signing balls and hats and programs and ticket stubs for kids. And he kept signing, so finally I decided to push my way through the children and ask him to sign my official NL ball. (I didn't really push kids out of the way, don't worry.) Johnny signed it, and rolled it back across the dugout roof to me, probably tipped off by the glasses that I didn't have the coordination to catch it. While he was still signing things for fans, I stood there and watched a little longer, after thanking him of course. He was looking in the stands to spot his family, who were up there in the 200s section above the dugout, not far from where I had found a seat (far better than the one I had paid for) the day before. Then I yelled, "hit one for Bed-Stuy," an area of Brooklyn where my wife once lived; I had no idea if that was where he grew up. (I think he is from Brooklyn though.) He looked at me like I was crazy. The left fielder smiled a satisfied smile though, knowing I was just some crazy Cardinal fan happily welcoming him to "our" team. I wouldn't sell the autograph on eBay, no way; I have a little bit of a soul. It sure would be great though for my newly acquired memorabilia item, adding another dimension to the story, if J-Rod has a decent little career in St. Louis.

ESPN's Housewarming Gift

2006-01-06T11:38:00.000-05:00

If you listen carefully, you can hear LaRussa's blood boiling right now at the news the Cards will have a total of ZERO days to practice or play in Busch III. This move comes courtesy of ESPN switching their Cards' Sunday, April 9 game in Chicago to an evening start for ESPN's Joe Morgan showcase, Sunday Night Baseball. Maybe they did it so that Neanderthal could get an Italian Beef Sandwich; I don't know. The highly respected cable network, also know as Disney's last vestige of profitability, pulled this stunt with the Cards last year for their game in San Francisco right before the All-Star Break. LaRussa was pissed off then; I can't wait to hear the skipper's reaction to this move. Because the Stadium construction is coming down to the wire, the Cards won't get to play any exhibition game before the season starts. The morning and afternoon of April 10 was going to be their first intro to their new home. Okay, so the team gets a small demerit for poor planning, but seems like another ill-conceived move by ESPN, the same type of move that made Stuart Scott the voice of the network, the same type of move that put Deadspin favorite Cold Pizza in the afternoon. Hat tip to Baseball Musings for the news.

You think this is easy?

2006-01-05T12:19:00.000-05:00

Have you ever harassed a mascot or other person wearing a large character costume in the paid role of trying to entertain park guests or event spectators? If you have, now you have the chance to experience life on the other side. The Springfield Cardinals are holding tryouts for mascots and the spirit team on Saturday, January 21st. Can you fill the shoes of Fredbird's AA counterpart, Louie? Let's see how you feel after you've made a few toddlers cry with your fuzzy red mask and taken the kicks and punches of their older brothers and sisters as you walk the isles getting ready for your next dance on top of the dugout. Seriously, that's got to be one of the hardest paychecks to earn in baseball. Here's my other question. Do you really get to move up through the system as your mascot performance peaks at that level of the farm system, a la Homer Simpson's short stint as the Capitol City Goofball?

More New Media

2006-01-04T21:57:00.000-05:00

There's a great deal to be analyzed, discussed, figured out, etc. about the roles, functions and intersection of blogs/new media and the more traditional outlets. I have much to say on the issue, but with a head full of cold medicine and my attention span divided into thirds between the internet, a surprising UT lead over USC, and Bravo's Project Runway (shut up), it's probably not the time to expand on such an important subject. I do want to point out to you, though the SE Sports Blog by Mike Mitchell of the Southeast Missourian, the local newspaper for Cape Girardeau, MO. By no means is this the only newspaper to enter the blog world, but I find it to be a smart mix of the more traditional reporting with the analysis and commentary function of blogs. Check it out. As you read it, notice how much it differs from the standard thousand word newspaper column. When newspaper columns are posted on the web, they have all the luster of 1977 Novas on a used car lot. Unlike so many tedious contemporary newspaper columns, Mitchell's blog gives the reader some credit, assumes they have some knowledge of the subject, and helpfully points readers to where they can glean this knowledge if they do not bring it with them. Like other top blogs but coming from a source within the established boundaries of media, the SE Sports Blog also acknowledges the insights and contributions of blogs, acknowledging that good blogs are far more than just partisan rants deserving nothing more than a sneer from the old media. I've added a link on the left, so stop in and check it out from time to time.

Issues, Pitching Issues

2006-01-04T15:35:00.000-05:00

Player predictions are starting to pop up around the web. Looking at ZiPS, Fungoes notices that Pujols is an early favorite for the Triple Crown. At the Birdwatch, Rob notices more reason for concern in around the pitchers than the offense. I have to express my agreement with that sentiment. Outside of Carpenter or Reyes, the ZiPS projections surrounding the other starting pitchers aren't much to get excited about. Suppan looks to again be Jeff Suppan, and that's a really good thing. As you may have discerned from posts here, I think the steady fourth and fifth starters are a point of pride for the Cardinals over the last two years, especially when they carry economical price tags. Having said that, my intention of this post wasn't to offer a late entry into the ZiPS discussion, rather it was to express some frustration about a couple issues we have around our starting rotation. Issue #1 Mark Mulder Mark Mulder posts stat lines respectable to fourth and fifth starters; this is not acceptable for a number two starter. Of course I realize that these are just predictions, to be taken with a grain of salt, but you can't help but feel that frustration creep back into your thoughts when you see these numbers. 2006 ZiPS projection: 207 IP, 4.22 ERA, 70 BB, 128 K, 205 HA, 19 HR, 1.64 K/BB, 5.57 K/9 2006 Roto Authority: 206 IP, 4.21 ERA, 73 BB, 101 K, 209 HA, 21 HR, 1.38 K/BB, 4.41 K/9 I know Mulder has never been a high strike out, "power" pitcher, but he used to have the ability to strike out hitters when necessary. The walk totals would indicate (at least in the predictors' minds) that we'll be seeing more Mulder painting the outside of the plate, and also that his ability to throw fastballs in the lower-mid 90s is long gone. What I would like to see is Mulder get back to his 2001-03 form, where he walked fewer than 55 batters in each season, and had a K/9 north of 6. Now, his ZiPS is a little better, but it's still not enough to wow you, especially from a number two starter. Another thing to consider is that he's a number two starter in a division where Roy Oswalt, Zambrano/Wood (?), and Chris Capuano are also number two starters. I'm not going to rehash the old "should have never traded"argument; in fact, even though I'm unhappy with the results, I supported the trade. I would still support it, if we could have used those players to grab another true, power pitching number two pitcher. Even so, Mulder does give us an innings eater, and he may well find his way back to his 2001-03 form. He's also a bargain for us in the current market for pitchers; at $7.5 million for 2006, he could have easily garnered $9 million a year as a free agent this winter, probably for four years too. With a contract expiring after this season, I think the Cards should try to work out a deal with him. If they can get him at a reasonable rate (say $32M/ 4 years, contract by Pollyanna there, but still...) and get the kind of number two starter I'm talking about through trade/FA or via Reyes working out well, then he becomes a nice number three starter for 2007. Those are big "ifs" I realize. If they do sign him and Reyes works out and they can get a power pitcher for the number two spot, then they can trade him down the road. Issue #2 Let Reyes Pitch I realize Jocketty most likely intends to use one of our extra starters to trade, so this may be a bit of a dead issue. However, Anthony Reyes is ready to start pitching games in the majors, and reconciling him to Memphis puts him at risk of languishing and regressing in his development. As of now, you have to think that the starting fourth and fifth spots will be taken by Marquis and Ponson, barring major meltdown by the large one. Both of them will certainly expect to start, and will not go the pen graciously. To me, sticking Reyes in the bullpen is not an option at all. He's a starting pitcher, and his importance to the organization is as a starter. Pitching out of the pen risks his conditioning and everything else the club has invested in him. Besides, given his injury history, it just makes sense to keep his body and mind accustomed to starting. I've said before that it might be a good idea to not trot him out there for 200 innings this year, and I still believe that. Therefore, bringing him up in July, after having traded one of our other starters, might be a better than nothing option. This could help him adjust physically, but if the Cards are in a tight race for the division you have to wonder how much LaRussa will be willing to use the rookie. Better to let him start the season in the rotation and adjust. His innings pitched could be held down by keeping him strictly limited to 6 per start and giving someone else (by call-up or by committee) five of Reyes' scheduled starts. I'm sure things will shake out Reyes starts games for the big club this season. If not, expect more rants on the subject as the season progresses. Those are the two main issues I wanted to share today. Sure, I've got lots of issues, some more about baseball even, but I'll save the others for those cold afternoons of the offseason.

You're Grounded: Conclusions on the Ground

2006-01-03T15:30:00.000-05:00

In coming back to the ground ball/fly ball ratio issue, I’m really kind of struggling with what to say. I endeavored into the topic expecting to find that the Cardinals’ pitching staff has a collective G/F ratio that far exceeds most other teams around the majors; it would have been a nice, easy point illustrated with statistics. What I found, however, was that other teams have very similar, even higher, staff G/F ratios to the Cards. Because I don’t have them with me, I can’t share my stats with you, but I’ll post a couple examples this evening. The Braves, for example, had a higher G/F ratio among their projected starting five for 2006. Mike Hampton (2.13) and Tim Hudson (2.25) both possess career G/F ratios that dwarf those of any Cardinal starter. [Point of clarification: Hampton and Hudson both have career G/F ratios that top any current Cardinals starter, but Mulder's 2.74 G/F last year was higher than the seasonal rate for either Huddie or Hampton] At Baseball Musings, David Pinto looked at the G/F statistic and its relationship to ERA; like me, I think he winds up at a point struggling to conclude anything of great significance, saying “in general, we shouldn’t worry about how balls are put into play against pitchers.” Ultimately, that’s probably the best conclusion of all. There is a thing or two we can take away from a closer look at the G/F ratio as applied to the Cardinals, however. One noticeable thing about starters, their G/F ratios and the Cardinals, is that the Redbirds don’t have a single starter below the league average (1.2) G/F. Other teams do seem much more willing to employ one or two starters that do indeed allow more fly balls than grounders. That doesn’t necessarily weaken the rotations of those teams. For instance, the Brewers’ Chris Capuano posted a 0.93 G/F ratio last year, and if you would prefer Jason Marquis to him, you’re crazier than Christopher Walken after a Deer Hunter flashback. Probably the most significant thing about the Cardinals and the G/F ratio is that would seems the organization smartly figures G/F ratios into their accounting stats as much as any kind of sabermetric analysis. By finding pitchers more prone to the ground ball, the team can combine that with good coaching and an emphasis on solid defense to employ effective pitchers to round out the pitching staff in a rather economical manner. See Suppan, Jeff. The less money committed to fourth and fifth starters the more money that can be committed to…uh…Juan Encarnacion – or long term salary dollars for Pujols et al. Besides the financial concerns, this approach that combines an emphasis on the ground ball with solid coaching and good defense gives the team solid guys at the back of the rotation and in less heralded bullpen roles that are effective, above replacement level players that give the team a chance to win games. Of course, it is impossible to quantify good coaching’s impact on this, but circumstantial evidence tells us a good head on the bench can go along way toward making a league average guy play above that level. And even if that means scoring 6-3 for every other opposing at bat, it’s better than having to suffer rampant inconsistency every fourth or fifth game through the long hot summers.

First Monday

2006-01-02T12:04:00.000-05:00

Happy New Year, neighborinos! Posting has been a little lighter than I had originally intended, between the wife and I celebrating the first anniversary, the new year, much quality time with a new Xmas toy video game system, and a general inability to read small computer screens yesterday as a result of celebrating the new year. I'll save the reflecting on the Diaspora when we mark our first year in April...along with our raison d'etre. It has been a great year so far though, so a major thanks to everyone who checks in for our mad ramblings. I've been working on a quick review of the G/F of the Cards compared to other teams around the league and expect to have that today or tomorrow. I will tell you this, it's not what I expected to find. In fact, the info I gathered has left me scratching my head as to how I might present it. Couple other quick hitters to cover here: Do you have an avid interest in fantasy baseball, be it as a novice or seasoned veteran? Would you be interested in forming a league and/or accepting another seasoned fantasy baseball player to fill a gap in your league? It's early, I know, but I just wanted to throw it out there for you early birds. Post in the comments or send me an email if you're interested in either of these items. I'll have more info about a Diaspora fantasy league (or two) as the season draws nearer. Finally, are you interested in writing some, again, as a seasoned pro or as a rookie with a strong desire to learn? There's some stuff in the works for the Diaspora and a couple other projects, so if you think you might be interested in doing a little extra writing drop me a line and I'll give you a little more info for you to decide if you might be interested. Get out and enjoy the last day off of the nice long holiday break (if you have it off).

You're Grounded: Cards' Bullpen and the Ground Ball

2005-12-31T19:54:00.000-05:00

Okay, so I'm a few hours late on it, but here's the G/F chart for the Cardinal bullpen. Included are a few guys without significant major league experience (Cali, Johnson, Mateo); they are on this because they project to be a part of the bullpen in some role next for the 2006 season. You can see very similar conclusions here as with the starters, and that should be fairly obvious. The bullpen pitcher, with his limited role and limited arsenal of pitches is brought in to make just a few outs (except on those occasions when the ground ball starter can't locate his pitches and a pen guy has to make 9 outs in a game). For this, he comes in and throws some variant of a fastball and his out pitch. The easy ground ball out is a highly desired outcome for guys in this role, so I'm not surprised to see Duncan and TLR employ ground ball pitchers for bullpen roles. Signing Looper parallels the situation with Tavarez to some extent. Both were signed as established ground ball pitchers, both came to Cards after seasons in which they have struggled to get strike outs; Tavarez was getting 4.10 K/9 in 2003 before he came to the Birds. With Looper, I suspect they see a ground ball pitcher, a strength they can build on, and if this plan works out, Looper's abilities will be tuned up top the point where statheads see an increased K/9 ratio and TLR sees an effective guy for the 8th inning. Tavarez experienced career highs in K/9 ratios during his time with the Cardinals, so let's hope the precedent continues. Way back when the Cardinals were first rumored to be interested in Looper, I noted his career 2.00 G/F was certainly attractive to the team. I still think it's safe to say that Looper's $15M for the next three seasons is certainly more for his ability to get the ground ball versus his ability to power past hitters. The chart above alludes to an idea much bandied about in Cardinal nation: that Izzy is nothing particularly special, rather a solid pitcher that has been turned into an effective closer by a good pitching coach and an emphasis on the strengths the good lord giveth him. For some more circumstantial evidence around Izzy and the Cards' G/F philosophy, think about how many games last season ended with a short toss from Eckstein to Pujols. Izzy struck out one fewer batter per 9 last season compared to his last season with the Cardinals, making his save opportunities that much more harrowing. It will be interesting to watch Brad Thompson progress over his career. Will he survive on that +2 G/F ratio and so few strike outs? Anyway, just some more dust to chew on. Clearly the Cardinals bullpen is as prized for their ground ball inducing ability as the starting rotation. Now, still as confident in the Spivey/Miles tandem at 2B?

You're Grounded: Cards' Pitchers and the Ground Ball

2005-12-30T13:43:00.000-05:00

I wanted to say that there's not much to write about now, but then the writer's conscience starts whispering to me, "good writers can always find something to write about." Ugh. I've said before that I think the Cardinals look at a pitcher's propensity for the ground ball as part of organizational philosophy. In fact, I think our management is more selective of ground ball pitchers than lots of the organizations that pitch in the band boxes across the league. It may seem boring to the fantasy leaguer, but finding ground ball specialists when seeking out pitchers is a pretty solid approach for a major league team. The ground ballers minimize damaging homeruns, allow the defense to stay sharp and get two outs instead of just one, they allow a minimal number of runners to get on base, make for an inexpensive way to acquire more modestly talented hurlers for the rotation, and take away the physical impact of forcing more expensive arms to throw hard fastballs over and over again to get a strikeout (i.e. the Dusty Baker, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior law). You can add other reasons to the list that make the case for insisting on a good G/F ratio from your pitchers. What I wanted to do in this last weekend of 2005 is to see just how this theory applies to the team by taking a look at the emphasis on the ground ball/fly ball ratio of each pitcher. Today, I went through the Cardinals 2006 staff for a review of their G/F ratio compared to their K/9 ratio. What the numbers here seem to indicate is that LaRussa and Duncan place an overt emphasis on inducing the ground ball out. Duh. That's nothing we didn't already know via every announcer that has ever covered a Cardinals game. What I do find interesting here is that each pitcher (Ponson & Reyes excluded) has seen an increase in their G/F ratio with the Cardinals over their career G/F ratio. The numbers confirm what you thought might be just banter from the media types. Interestingly enough the numbers above also show that emphasizing the ground ball out does not come at the expense of the strike out. Carpenter and Supe have experienced increased K/9 ratios since joining the Cards. Marquis' K/9 ratio and G/F ratio in 2004 were way above career numbers, but took a huge hit in 2005 as the kid experienced a pretty rough season until relatively late. Mulder's a little bit of an exception. He experienced great success with the G/F ratios, but his K/9 declined for the third year in a row. Mulder's fate this year largely rested on the ground ball. It is safe to say that more than a few of Mulder's ground ball outs happened as a result of lucky grabs by the fielders behind him. And here's the rub with a good G/F ratio: I, along with some actual baseball experts, tend to think that a pitcher has have a higher K rate to be effective, 'cause if that luck runs out... A pitcher also needs to be able to dependably employ the strike out as an outcome against the hitters they face. Mulder's never been a big strike out pitcher; his career K/9 was 6.90 in 2002. I don't believe that the organization should make a long term deal with him if he can't start striking out batters again. Anyway, there's a look at the starters for 2006. The jury's out on Ponson and Reyes, but Duncan's success with those two will in part be measured by his ability to get them to induce ground ball outs. Ponson has show an ability to do this in past. As for Reyes, he's certainly more of a power, strike out pitcher, and it will be interesting to see what his G/F looks like as he progresses in the major leagues. [side note: if anyone knows where I can find career minor league numbers for G/F, let me know, even if it's a pay site. I got the 2005 numbers from Baseball America. Thanks.] I have a chart for the bullpen, and I'll post that here later today, as soon as I finish updating it. Through the weekend, I will compare our starters to the staffs on other teams.

On Having Returned

2005-12-30T10:17:00.000-05:00

I'm back baby! Wow, consecutive Frank Costanza references, it truly is a Festivus Miracle. Speaking of, I hope everyone had/is having a nice Festivus season. Having just returned from holiday fun in the motherland, my energies are currently devoted to processing the insane amounts of food I consumed over the last week. Only on holiday vacation can you enjoy cookies at 8:00 a.m.! I didn't think much about all the exciting player acquisitions made in the last month, so as not to risk heartburn while devouring that much food. Some of my peers in blog-land seem to think the Spivey signing is a good deal. I'll say that it's okay, especially for another "project" at second base, but the newest glass-jaw to join the infield will have to win me over with some good play starting in March before I jump on that bandwagon. I still think missing out on Brad Wilkerson was our biggest mistake, but too late to worry about it now. More to come later today. I'll also provide you with some easy reading content over the weekend as you nurse those hangovers. If you're like me, the nasty headache that comes from those things makes reading on the web painful, so we'll stick to short posts that will hurt your head in other ways.

Serenity now!

2005-12-23T21:14:00.000-05:00

Serenity now! Serenity now! The Diaspora will be silent from December 24 - December 29, barring any unexpected news, and let's face it, there probably isn't going to be any major signings this week, next or the week after, etc. Face it, outside of a 35 year old Edmonds, our starting OF consists of Larry Bigbie and Juan Encarnacion...exactly. If there are anymore junk guys signed this week, I probably won't break radio silence in an attempt to ignore it and enjoy the one week this year the wife and I get to spend with our families. This isn't the last post of the year, so I'll save all the thank yous till next weekend and there'll be plenty of new stuff to read while you nurse those hangovers on the 1st. To maintain high spirits, the Diaspora is providing you with some "greatest hits" links: Relive Game 5 of the NLCS. Remember when Mark Mulder got his K back? Let's hope he gets those K rates up next year. Anthony Reyes should be starting for the Cards, remember this? Cards play one, two, three games in DC, and how 'bout that Marquis in game 2? Wondering about the youth movement? Check out the fine stock in Springfield. And learn more about the new AA franchise here. Be sure to go back and read the great stuff on all the other top-notch blogs from the best bloggers in baseball. Enjoy the holidays everybody! Be back on Dec. 30.

Jocketty's eBay Shopping Spree

2005-12-23T16:02:00.000-05:00

With the holidays here, I have to confess that I am an eBay addict. There's not a flea market in the world where you can by such great junk. I also by myself stuff on that site, but always with a little cautiousness. One time, I remember buying an "autographed" 1987 Cardinals team baseball. I was autographed alright, by someone in a Malaysian sweatshop who ran the stamp machine for the novelty baseballs. I got ripped off, such is the risk when you buy junk. Walt Jocketty went on his own eBay shopping spree this offseason, bringing in way more than the team's usual share of "reclamation project" players, i.e. "junk" when they don't work out well. Fans shouldn't mind one or two players looking for a second chance on the team; that's how a good GM rounds out the roster. So, a guy looking to turn things around can often fit in nicely as a 5th starter, filling a role out of the pen, or even to hold down a position on the field. But like a closet full of clothes from eBay, you, and those around you, can only tolerate so many. Project reclamation, Operation eBay, or whatever you want to call it includes, so far: Aaron Miles, Larry Bigbie, Sydney Ponson, Braden Looper (the best of the bunch), Juan Encarnacion (not so much reclamation as junk), John Riedling (got a minor league contract), and Junior Spivey (a guy injured more than Scott Rolen and to whom I think my blogging peers are being too generous in their assessments). There might be some others, but you kind of get point. All of this leaves the Cardinals more than capable of competing, but definitely not capable of winning a championship. Over at VEB, lboros sees a team that can muster 90-95 wins. I think that's pretty generous. 95 wins is probably a best case scenario that depends on a few external factors: none of the top three starting pitchers miss more than five cumulative starts; the core bats of Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, and Eckstein (didn't we used to have more core bats?) don't miss any significant time with injury; none of those core bats experience a slump; at least one of the new position players performs above career norms; Izzy being healthy; and finally, all of the reclamation projects working out. There's probably even a few more external factors the fates and Dusty Baker's pitcher management system will need to take care of for us as well. I'm going to put my guess at 87 wins, 90 tops. I think we can still compete for the division; although, if the Cubs pull of the trade for Tejada, I'll loose some sleep. I'm not giving up either. While I may piss and moan about the new additions, I have faith in Jocketty to make some magic happen before the end of the summer at least. In fact, a tight race for the division might be a Festivus Miracle in disguise, necessitating a bold mid-season acquisition, which hopefully could be done for something less than our small pool of young talent. But hey, that's a mad rambling for another time. It's the Holiday season! Go enjoy your gifts, even the stuff that someone got for you on eBay should be entertaining for a little while - it might even turn out to be of some value, if you're lucky.

Junk, Junk, Junk

2005-12-23T10:12:00.000-05:00

Juan Encarnacion. Well, at least that last name is fun to say. Signing him at $15M for three years seems kind of stupid. We can get someone with that posts a .750 OPS from our bench for much cheaper. Between Rodriguez and Taguchi the corner outfield would have been AT LEAST at the level it will be if Bigbie (who apparently is going to be a .300/30HR/100+RBI guy according to some unquestioning fans) and Encarnacion start in the corner spots. I don't want to get my blood pressure up thinking about the Junior Spivey possibility. I hope Colorado comes through and offers him some stupid contract before we add another junk second baseman to our rapidly expanding collection.

Taking Stock: The Bullpen

2005-12-21T22:22:00.000-05:00

The one on the right is one on the left and the one on left is... so it wasn't Johnny Cash's best song, but it's a good segue into an extremely early look at where things stand for 2006 in regards to the Cardinal bullpen. I started with the bullpen because, so far, the most significant moves from the Cards front office has centered on filling out the bullpen. Below I’ve gone through each guy we have in the pen so far, and a few others that should be seen as likely members at some point this season. Please note, I have left off several guys placed on the 40 man roster recently, Chris Narveson for example, that are likely to remain in the minors through September, IMO. While it’s quite likely that either Cali or Johnson will be in the minors as well, I added both of them because at various points throughout the season one or the other will certainly be in the pen for LOOGY duty. On the right: Jason Isringhausen In spite of all the Cardinal fans unable to exhale through 9th innings, Izzy remains a solid presence as the pen’s anchor. Last season, he remained effective, but saw his K/9 and K/BB ratios take a hit. His ground ball/fly ball ratio went up (1.38 in 2004) which accounts for some of the reduced strike outs. It was in the first half of the season, when he was having injury issues, that his K rates really suffered, and he returned to form as the summer progressed. 2005: 63 G, 59 IP, 43 HA, 4 HR, 27 BB, 51 K, 39 SV, 2.14 ERA, 7.78 K/9, 1.89 K/BB, 1.73 G/F Here is Bill James’ 2006 prediction for Izzy. 66 G, 62 IP, 49 H, 4 HR, 24 BB, 57 K, 36 SV, 10.8 BR/9, 2.99 ERA Looks pretty good, eh? James sees his K ratios going back up to about 8.27 K/9 and 2.38 K/BB. His ERA goes up and he posts three fewer saves over three more innings. I would guess that with the team lineup as currently constructed, Izzy will have fewer opportunities to earn a save. When he does get the opportunity, it will be the same old Izzy we’re used to, except maybe less of a nail biter. The Cards’ closer reminds us that you don’t necessarily have to be a lights out, power arm to be effective; you just need to get three outs. He's just 33 years old, so he's definitely got a few years left to pitch. His injury history is cause for some concern, and I suspect TLR and Duncan will be a little understanding when his arm hurts since they signed... Braden Looper The newest addition to the bullpen will be setting up Izzy, and putting management's minds at ease if Izzy needs to take a week off. There were some groans when the Cards signed Looper, but even after a poor 2005 closing in Queens, Looper can serve handily as a setup man. Let's look at his stats: 2005: EqERA 4.74; VORP 5.3; 4.10 k/9; 1.23 k/BB; 9.89 h/9; 1.06 hr/9; 1.79 G/F Career: 5.61 k/9; 1.73 k/BB; 9.12 h/9; 0.72 hr/9; 2.00 G/F For Looper, TLR and Duncan see that G/F ration and see a pretty solid 8th inning guy that can close in a pinch, see the rule above about not needing to be lights out, just needing to get three outs. Here's his 2006 projection from Bill James. 58 G, 58 IP, 59 H, 5 HR, 20 BB, 36 K, 35 SV, 12.6 BR/9, 3.91 ERA This prediction was made assuming Looper would be the Mets' closer again, so take it for what it's worth. One thing to note is that James' projects a K/BB rate of 1.80, slightly above his career norm. I think Looper will be fine. He's not going to be a world beater when he faces lefties, but I think Duncan can get him back to a respectable form. The key to that, as far as the Cards are concerned, is getting that G/F ratio above 2.00 again. Brad Thompson Thompson had a nice rookie year, giving the Cards a solid right handed presence to effectively eat up the middle innings of games. 2005: 40 G, 55 IP, 46 HA, 5 HR, 15 BB, 29 K, 2.95 ERA, 4.75 K/9, 1.93 K/BB, 2.40 G/F He kept both lefties and righties to an OPS under .650. What he lacked in striking out batters, he achieved through getting the ground ball outs. He's 23 years old, looks like he's 12, and doesn't take up much salary space at all. What's not to like about him? For 2006, there's no reason to think he can't remain as effective as last year, and a solid year of major league experience should help him out for next year. I do, however, wonder about his low K totals, but he's probably in for a nice career in middle relief. Juan Mateo Mateo is our Rule 5 draft pick out of the Cubs organization. His seasonal age for 2006 is 23, the same age as Brad Thompson last year. He's got three years of service time in the minors, pitching for the Cubs' Daytona Class A affiliate last year. Here are his minor league career totals: 102 G, 217 2/3 IP, 197 HA, 14 HR, 60 BB, 218 K, 9.01 K/9, 3.63 K/BB, 0.58 HR/9 This guy has talent. However, it's a big jump to majors from where he's been, so he has to be successful enough for the Cards to keep on their roster all season or else he's a Cub again. I desperately want the kid to be this year's version of Brad Thompson, in no small part due to the fact that I'd hate to give him back to the Cubs so Dusty could wreck his arm before he turns 28. Spring Training will be a key to Mateo's future with the team. I had originally intended to put Adam Wainwright in here, but it's pretty tough to make a guess on his status. I suspect he'll start the season in Memphis, unless he blows everyone away in Florida this spring. Supposedly, the Cards want to make him a starter, so they won't promote him to any full time gig as a long reliever. If any of the starters or other righties gets injured, then Wainwright will probably join the team for until that pitcher makes a recovery. Last year in AAA, he posted a 10-10 record, 4.40 ERA, 7.27 K/9, 51 BB, 147 K, 2.88 K/BB. Very respectable. He may also wind up as trade bait. The pen still needs another solid righty. They seem to be pursuing Felix Rodriguez, and there are other options out there. I'll try to get to the left side tomorrow.

Second Chances and Tempered Expectations

2005-12-21T16:22:00.000-05:00

Commentary from Cards fans spans the spectrum of reactions, with some being particularly harsh, with several seeming to think it's a bad signing based solely on his off-field problems. Here's the thing. Yes, I'll make the occasional drinky-drinky reference, but it really sounds like the guy is sincere about wanting a second chance. Right now, we have to take him at his word on that. It's also a positive sign that he seems willing to admit his behavior was a problem, unlike Leonard Little who just kind of got to walk away from manslaughter without admitting any sort of personal culpability in the matter. Ponson could have easily blamed his problems on some other demon and waited for the players union to reach a settlement for him against Baltimore for cutting their ties with him and then retreated to some Aruban beach to drink umbrella drinks the rest of his life. There is no shortage of cliches you could insert here, so let me just say that it takes something extra to admit you screwed up and harness a sincere desire to overcome those mistakes. Giving people who are willing to earn one a second chance is one of the more admirable planks of our cultural foundation. I am willing to grant him that as a human being, and I sincerely hope it works out for the best, as a human AND as a Cardinals fan. Now, let's remember what role Ponson is being expected to assume. Clearly we have signed ourselves a 5th starter, not an ace, not even a middle of the rotation guy. This isn't someone that needs to go out there and post 8 K/9, he needs to go out there and give the team a chance to win the game. The fifth starter doesn't need to put up a sub-3.00 ERA, he just needs to throw the ball over the plate for six or seven innings without giving up 6 runs every time he starts. At $1M guaranteed, he's way below the market for 5th starters this year, and if he reaches the incentives for $2.5M all the better for us because he'll still be an incredibly cheap option. Welcome to St. Louis Sydney, let's hope it's for the best.

Broken Pitchers Seeking New Homes

2005-12-21T09:10:00.000-05:00

St. Louis Rams' defensive end Leonard Little has a new drinkin' buddy in town, Sydney Ponson formerly of the Baltimore Orioles and the penal league. The drunk drivin', judge punchin' Ponson can hopefully get in turned around with a fresh start in St. Louis. What does this mean? The obvious answer is that Jocketty can now use a starting pitcher as a trade chip, and if if he were able to get Coco Crisp for Marquis, I'd gladly watch Ponson start 30 games for the Cards. However, given the size of the question mark hovering over Ponson's head, I have a stronger inclination to think that they'll wait and see how he does before shipping out a known commodity like Marquis. If things work out okay, Marquis or Suppan gets shipped out in July for an outfielder. Reyes then assumes a starting role with the added benefit of adjusting to the majors in half a season and, probably, goes into the playoffs (another if) as a bullpen pitcher. I don't feel strongly either way about Ponson's signing, but I hope he works out. Otherwise we'll ship him back to Aruba to search for that missing girl. There's also talk of the Cards having an interest in Wade Miller. BUYER BEWARE! Stay away from him unless he's willing to take a minor league contract. He will not recover in time for much of the 2006 season, and it sounds an awful lot like he won't recover much at all. He's one of those pitchers that has to have a hundred little things right in order to pitch well, and having all those things in order (his delivery style is a big part of that problem) is like...because I can't find a PG analogy...herding cats.

Go Vote!

2005-12-20T22:40:00.000-05:00

Looking for something to do while you puruse the web killing time at work in the days before you take a holiday break? Go vote at Red Reporter's Blog Awards contest. Vote for all your Cardinal favorites. Cardinals' blogs got a lot of nominations for Best MLB Blog, so let's go support them with our votes. Also, while you're there, please consider giving the Diaspora your vote in the Best Newcomer category. Regardless of how you vote, you'll find links to lots of cool sites to visit while pissing away the work days that you should probably have off anyway.

Crisp-y Future for the OF?

2005-12-20T20:19:00.000-05:00

If Jocketty pulls off a Marquis for Coco Crisp trade, I'll take back all (some) of the bitching and moaning I did on the Cardinals feeble week at the winter meetings. Viva El Birdos has the scoop, from someone named "Hawg Wild." I don't know how much stock I put in someone that willingly assumes the moniker "Hawg Wild," but it's hard not to get excited about a deal like this. Coco's 26 years young, a switch hitter, and just getting ready to peak as a major leaguer, a phenomenon usually occurring around a young man's 27th year. (Ahh, 27...I remember my 27th year...sort of). Last year he posted a solid line of .300/.345/.465/.810, showing steady improvement over the last three years. If he learns to take the walks a little better, he's a sure bet to up his OBP north of .355. Facing the lefties he suffers a bit, .696 OPS compared to a .869 OPS against the righties. I don't know why the Indians would want to get rid of him, but this wouldn't be the first time they tried. They tried to swap him in 2004, and I'm writing this without performing a cursory review of their farm system. They're down a starting pitcher with Scott Elarton signing with the cross state powerhouse Royals, and I would think they'd see some value in Marquis, who would be a solid upgrade from Elarton. Crisp would be a good fit in the number two spot, having a little more power and taking fewer walks than Eckstein. He's also a good bunter. I'm also promising myself and everyone in Cardinals nation that if we do get Crisp, I WILL NOT make any of the obvious and oh so trite cereal jokes. Although it is funny that Coco Crisp and Milton Bradley used to play on the same team; I bet the kiddies had a hell of a giggle at those games. None. Zero. No cereal jokes. ---- The Cards outfield got a de facto improvement today as Jacque Jones signed a 3 year, $16 million with the Cubs. That's good for us, Chicago gets a $5M per year for a platoon hitter; .616 OPS versus lefties. Rincon, Flores, Ty Johnson, Cali just got an easy way to earn their money.

Under the Hard Cap

2005-12-20T12:46:00.000-05:00

If we want to stockpile a collection of aging and/or mediocre second basemen on the roster, then management might want to think about Rich Aurilia. He declined Cincy's arbitration offer, and with Ryan Freel and Tony Womack, they likely don't need him anyway. If they want to stick to the theme of picking up second basemen in the autumn of their careers, Aurilia, 34, would fit the bill nicely. In the middle part of his career, he put up solid numbers, even hitting 37 home runs for the Giants in 2001 (flax seed oil, cough, cough). He wound up relegated to utility duties by 2004, starting the season with the Mariners and being acquired by the Padres as a veteran fill-in for Sean Burroughs. Last year, he started the season in Cincy in the back up role, but got pressed into full time duties as injuries befell their infield. When he started playing full time, his numbers soared and fans caught a glimpse of the Ghost of Aurilia's Past. 2005 post All-Star: .315/.377/.481/.858 Career: .276/.330/.436/.766 Those really aren't bad numbers for a second baseman. His numbers against righties and lefties were quite similar, with his slugging taking the only noticeable drop. His numbers are also better than Aaron Miles' numbers, who posts a career sub-.700 OPS. So his age, skill set, and circumstances seem to fit the Cards' m.o. for second base, but the biggest requirement would likely be salary. Aurilia made $500K last year, and turned down an arbitration offer that likely would have made him a little richer. My spot analysis says that he would definitely fit into the $2 million "hard cap" handcuffs given to Walt for filling the keystone bag. Aurilia makes a nice option, nothing to get excited about, but he certainly seems like a solid pick given the restrictions put on filling that position.

Reyes' Xmas Sweater

2005-12-19T09:04:00.000-05:00

I meant to post over the weekend, but, since we ship most of our gifts, all Xmas shopping had to be finished by Sunday afternoon. Then the wrapping, the boxing, the labeling, etc. It's way more exhausting than it sounds. Yesterday, while waiting in line in a pet store watching people buy fleece and cashmere sweaters for their dogs I started thinking about the Cardinals' starting rotation, and Anthony Reyes in particular. No, I don't think of Kid Reyes as a dog or in need of a cashmere sweater (but who doesn't look good in cashmere?), rather I was thinking of protecting the talented young hurler with a penchant for injury. Talk, speculation, rumors repeatedly bubble up about the team looking to sign another starting pitcher, be it Kirk Reuter, Jason Johnson, Jamey Wright or someone else suited to the end of the rotation. While the main reason for this is to give us a trade chip, there's another benefit to getting a low cost, league average starter. They could share starts over the course of the season with Kid Reyes, keeping him from throwing upwards of 200 innings in his first season. It's a luxury no doubt, and probably not all that realistic of a scenario. Let's look at the case for it anyway. Reyes, without a doubt, is ready to pitch in the majors. However, he's got a history of injury and has never pitched more than 140 innings in a season. His elbow buggered him his senior year in college and he missed three weeks in 2005 with a strained shoulder joint. Of course, the organization should be working with him on conditioning to make sure he's in top notch shape, but the risk of putting him on the mound for 200 or even 190 innings next year is too great given the value of young, talented starters we've seen in the current market. Another inexpensive starter could take the hill for us in 12 or 13 games, and Reyes could start around 21 games, a gradual increase in the number of innings pitched. This way he doesn't get the Dusty Baker treatment, and burn out three or four years from now. Of course, there's no reason to think Reyes can't go out there and start 30 games in fine fashion, and I hope he does. Another veteran starter probably wouldn't be willing to sign and have themselves relegated to that duty anyhow, and it probably wouldn't be wise to eat up the roster spot with a cashmere sweater for our top rookie. Now watch LaRussa really put a kink in our 2006 roster fantasies by signing another starter, not trading Marquis, and keeping Reyes in Memphis.

Meet Your Springfield Cardinals, Part 2

2005-12-16T15:27:00.000-05:00

On a day that began with news of the Cardinals re-signing a former first round draft pick, traded away seven years ago, it seems appropriate to take a look into the Cards current crop of youngsters. On Wednesday, Springfield Cardinals' beat writer Kary Booher, of the Springfield News-Leader, gave us a closer look at the AA Springfield Cardinals and their place in a new community as well as in their larger role in the Cardinals' baseball organization. Today, we take a closer look at the young (and a few not so young) guys who spent some time playing for the Springfield Cardinals last summer. Take note, as you may be seeing a few of these players in the Cardinals' lineup in a couple years or so, and some you may not ever even see in a AAA lineup. Either way, these are names fans should get to know. And, of course, Rick Ankiel watchers will be satisfied. In the comments section of this post, I would like to invite you to leave your thoughts on some of these players. The analysis provided here is pretty thought provoking, and I think will stir your thoughts on the team's future lineup as the debate about filling out the '06 lineup takes place. There are also probably a number of readers out there who have had the opportunity to see these guys play, whether in Springfield or with another team in the system; if you have, readers would love to hear you thoughts and impressions of the players mentioned here. Without further delay... meet your Springfield Cardinals, part two. In Baseball America’s recent ranking of the Cards’ top 10 prospects, Chris Lambert was ranked #4, the highest Springfield player. What’s your scouting report on him? It seems like his numbers took a hit in the move up from Palm Beach, do you credit that to adjustment to AA? What does 2006 hold for him? Lambert, like I said, hit a wall in midseason. He admitted that after the final game of the year, and it was to be understood. I agree with what Baseball America said about him, that he has to learn how to work in his offspeed stuff to succeed from Double-A on up. He relied too much on his fastball in the Texas League and I think he saw why this is the proving ground of the minors. I expect he’ll come back and tear it up next season. The guy is a competitor and, even though he signed for $1.5 million, he’s not one of those flashy types. That’s a good sign. Sometimes you see guys who are overly worried about headlines and buying the best cars and they are the ones who don’t figure it out. Tell us about Travis Hanson. What kind of things did you see from him this year? Will he start the 2006 season in Memphis? What about his future beyond Memphis? How’s his defense? Hanson will start the year in Memphis and was put on the 40-man roster the other day. I wondered if he was even going to make it in Double-A after April, when he was hitting about .200. But Hanson had three good games in a row in early May, and that changed everything. He got his confidence back and ended up hitting 20 homers and driving in 97 runs, second-most in the Texas League, and did all this after missing most of last year with an ankle injury. The thing is, that ankle problem cut into his defense, and he made 36 errors. But he started getting better near the end of the season and didn’t make any errors in the Arizona Fall League. I think the Cardinals may have something with him. Cody Haerther is also usually mentioned as one of the Cardinals’ top prospects, give us a little insight into his season in Springfield. His stats look good (.298/.333/.500), and he’s young. Is this a player to be excited about? Where does he play in the OF, and how does arm look? Haerther tore up August, and it was impressive. He hurt a knee in mid-June right after getting called up from Palm Beach and that kept him from being consistently in the lineup. But once he got healthy, he did well. I’d still like to see him for a full season in Double-A before I get too excited about him. There’s enough to like, for sure, but he has to improve his defense in left field. He’ll get the chance to do that. The Cardinals didn’t re-sign Papo Bolivar, meaning the job is Haerther’s to lose. Will Stuart Pomeranz start the 2006 season in Springfield? He’s young, so what does he need to do to continue his development path? I expect Stu to return here, but his stay may last only a half season if he pitches like he did at the end of this past season. He was hard to figure out early on, but he went back to his high school delivery — he brings his hands over his head — and was a completely different pitcher in his last five or six starts. If he can work on his offspeed stuff, he’ll be tough this year and can find his way to Memphis, his hometown. Of course, no discussion of the Springfield Cardinals could be complete without a question about Rick Ankiel. How was he received by fans in Springfield? His stats from his second stint in Springfield got pretty significant attention, give us a peak behind the stats. How does he look as a player? Does he start 2006 in Memphis? I’m surprised Ankiel hasn’t gotten more attention by the St. Louis writers now that Walker is gone and it looks like they won’t be able to re-sign several guys. Amazing how not signing A.J. Burnett changed the dynamics of their offseason. Rick hit 21 home runs in 321 at-bats between Low-A and Double-A last year, and 10 of those came in his final 28 games here. People here loved him, of course, because they think of him as a true Cardinal, having been drafted by them and having led them to the brink of a pennant. And now he is on the 40-man roster but is still out of options. That means the Cardinals would have to go through the same waiver wire worries they had last year if they want to option him to the minors out of spring training. But I could see him as their starting right fielder — especially now that Giles is staying in San Diego — but he could be used as a pinch-hitter, as La Russa had in John Mabry. He still needs to work on his defense, but Ankiel is athletic enough to correct it. What I like about Rick is that he only cares about winning. Even though this was Double-A, he would be uspet if they lost. The guys loved him because he was their biggest cheerleader. It didn’t hurt that he also left his new stereo in the clubhouse when he was sent to Quad Cities. He probably needs more seasoning as an outfielder, but I wouldn’t put anything past this guy on a baseball field. In regards to Ankiel, what was it like for fans and his teammates especially having him on the team given his well-know story? I think at first it was kind of odd, especially when he played in the spring training games on the fields away from Roger Dean Stadium. A lot of people want him to succeed, but when he struggled in May here there was a sense that it may not work out. When he returned, it was obvious he had found his confidence. I think Rick saw this as a way to leave the past behind. When he was first optioned to Double-A, I wrote about his past and all that. But when he arrived here, I focused on the work that waited ahead of him. I remember starting the story with his thoughts on the plane ride here, and he said something to the effect that he just wanted to have fun. I thought that said a lot. What’s the latest news on Alan Benes’ comeback? Benes came here in August and pitched decently. I think the Cardinals want to see what he can do for a good chunk of next season before making a decision. He’s only 33, so there’s the possibility he could be in St. Louis’ bullpen down the road. We tend to know the prospects, but who are some of the other important players on the Springfield Cardinals and what roles do they play? Keep an eye on shortstop Brendan Ryan, who was promoted in late July from Palm Beach. He’s a good-looking player, and I can see him being moved to second base. If he makes the roster, first baseman/DH Juan Diaz is a guy to watch in Memphis next year. He reported here weighing 300 pounds and hits the ton out of the ball. If he can get in better shape and heal his ankle, he’ll be fun to keep track of. Who are some of the new faces we’ll see on the Springfield Cardinals in 2006? I’m looking forward to seeing Eric Haberer, a pitcher who was drafted out of Southern Illinois. I’m holding out hope that somebody from their June draft will make it here, too. If Greene can hit at Palm Beach, he might be the first. Where does the team stand in relation to their Texas League competition in 2006? I thought Arkansas had the most talent last year, and Midland was pretty solid, too, what with Daric Barton at first base. Overall, it seemed like the other teams had more true athletes than the Springfield club, but that’ll be changing in the years to come. I can’t wait to see what talent they get out of the Domincian Republic now that they have a new academy down there, and their June draft looked pretty nice. Who would you say the team’s top position player this year? Pitcher? What kind of impact did they have on the team? [ed. note: this question also appeared in part I] Top position player was Travis Hanson, the third baseman. A super nice guy, one of those players you pull for. He was also the hardest worker, staying long after games to do work in the weight room. Hanson not only gave them a left-handed bat, but he also impacted the team by never wanting to come out of the lineup. That went over well in the clubhouse. The top pitcher was left-hander Randy Leek, a guy from Long Island. He is pushing 30, but he showed the younger guys that you don’t have to have a 100 mph fastball to win. He changed speeds and knew when to use his fastball. And two years after Tommy John surgery, he’ll be coming back. ------ Once again, I want to thank Mr. Booher for taking time out of his schedule to do this interview.

Springfield Cardinals Update

2005-12-16T11:25:00.000-05:00

I will be posting part two of the Springfield Cardinals update this afternoon. I wanted to let the Looper news sink in and digest a little first. It'll be up by 3:00 p.m. Eastern time.

Looping Back, reprise

2005-12-16T08:41:00.000-05:00

And your premier off-season free agent signing is... Braden Looper. Kind of anticlimactic, huh? I said Looper would be a good pick up, when I thought he was to be had for a one year deal for two or even three million. I didn't think the market would grant him closer money. Still, dance with them that brung ya, or whatever the saying is. I reviewed Looper's stats earlier in the week, given his peripherals and a ratio of ground balls to fly balls, Duncan might well get him back to his 2004 form. His weakness is lefties, but the NL Central isn't too bad a place to pitch if that's your Achilles heel. Yes, it is an insane amount of money, but there's probably not much use in complaining about it now. DanUp makes a good point though, in that the organization wasn't willing to spend $5M on a second baseman, but no problem dropping that on Looper? Birdos notes is as pound foolish, and that's probably a reasonable assessment too. I hope Duncan gets this kid pulled back together, because if he doesn't even the most forgiving fans in baseball will remember this contract. Conspiracy theory time. How much is this signing due to concerns about Izzy's health?

M.I.A.

2005-12-15T13:11:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the silence thus far today. Paying employment requires much of my attention this day, but there'll be more this evening. (Let me say this to our younger readers out there, make sure you don't let college binge drinking interfere with your plans to spend the rest of your life doing something you may actually find some passion for and avoid careers in marketing.) A HUGE thanks to Baseball Musings (Mr. Pinto's site was a huge inspiration to me) for the link today, kind of a bad day to be without content. At any rate, soak up the interview with Springfield Cardinals' beat writer Kary Booher, of the Springfield News-Leader, and prepare for heavy AA prospect talk tomorrow. Hint: There's some insight into Rick Ankiel and the Cards' outfield contained in part two. This weekend I'm going to be working on my own version of a "state of the team" series, unless the last minute rush of holiday gift shopping and manufacture (Crafts are still fun, and I assist my wife so I don't feel like a freeloader when we both sign the 'from' part of the card) totally consumes me.

Learning to Deal

2005-12-14T22:21:00.000-05:00

I'm going to reluctantly admit to experiencing a decreased sense of panic from the Cardinals lack of activity thus far in the hot stove. Let me first assure you that it is not out of pure blind faith. Jocketty et al have proven to be smart, rational executives, but they're hardly infallible. However, they're smart not to be making signings now merely to be making signings (i.e. PR). If it's between paying Burnitz $5M for a season or letting the current crop of Rodriguez, Gall, Bigbie, etc. battle it out, then go with what we have. A Jacque Jones or Burnitz probably isn't going to be able to give you much more than those guys can in the field and at the plate. Honestly, I'd like to see what those young-ish guys can do given the opportunity. Taguchi, while not young has proven himself as a capable replacement. However, in spite of my reluctant acceptance (not approval), I refuse to blindly afford ownership a free pass, giving the GM a hard cap for empty roster spots and expecting his Midas touch with second basemen in need of reclamation is foolish. Probability tells us that at some point the reclamation project isn't going to work. And not allowing Jocketty to up the offer to Burnett (worth the risk IMO), within the market realities of today's MLB was a bad move. Fielding the current lineup as is, the Cardinals start off in a decent position within the NL Central. They must make upgrades along the way, and I'm sure something may yet happen this winter. Although Giles would have been nice, that level of a player may not necessarily be what the team needs; I don't recall Jermaine Dye being hailed as the most important signing by the White Sox last December. If nothing happens, they'll be a competitive team, but definitely not a championship team.

Meet the Springfield Cardinals, Part I

2005-12-14T10:58:00.000-05:00

In the midst of all the hot stove hubbub, we get intently focused and wrapped up in the speculation about which superstar teams will be signing, or won’t be signing in the Cards’ case. Any thoughts of prospects are strictly limited to those mentioned as a possible bargaining chip. Pair this with all the talk of money and the enormous contracts, and it brings out elements of cynicism even in the game’s most ardent fans. Without getting into the “baseball as innocence” meme, I wanted to leave the free agent/trade speculation to the chat boards today and take an extensive look at the Cardinals new AA farm team, the Springfield, MO Cardinals. [Full disclosure: I still call Springfield home, even though I live in DC. I’ve tried to avoid my bias here, but I make no guarantees.] Recently, I was able to chat with the Springfield Cardinals beat writer Kary Booher, from the Springfield News-Leader about the team and the young players that represent the future of the Cardinals organization. Today’s post, the first of two parts, is focused on the team’s experience in its new home and its relationship with the larger Cardinals’ organizations. On Friday, the second part of the interview takes a more in-depth look at the players and prospects, with Mr. Booher giving us an idea about some of players that we might see in Springfield, Memphis, or even in St. Louis next year. Mr. Booher, a 1997 graduate of Oklahoma State University, has worked as a reporter for newspapers in Topeka and Pittsburgh, KS, where he covered Pittsburgh State University. Prior to joining the staff at the News-Leader, he worked in for four years in Jackson, TN, covering the West Tennessee Diamond Jacks, the Cubs’ AA affiliate. First of all, what was it like to cover the Springfield Cardinals and AA baseball? Amazing. I grew up an hour south of Wichita and would go to a lot of the Double-A games there in high school and college, and those experiences made me want to cover the minor leagues. I did get my chance in 2001 in West Tennessee to cover the Cubs Double-A club there, and that was a lot of fun. But the passion people around here have for the Cardinals makes this job even better, because the challenge is meeting their expectations of good baseball coverage. They don’t just want game stories and features. They want the stuff that goes with having a minor league team, like getting to the stories about the career minor leaguers as well as the prospects and how they exactly factor into the organization’s plans. The best part is that it’s Double-A baseball, the proving ground of the minor leagues. A number of visitors to this site are Cardinals fans scattered about the world; give us a little perspective into what this team means for Springfield. What was the community reaction like, finally getting a professional baseball team, especially one affiliated with the Cardinals? It figured that a lot of people would be interested in a new minor league team in town, especially one affiliated with the St. Louis Cardinals. But I don’t think anyone truly expected the team to draw more than a half-million fans in the first season. There was an independent league team here in the three years before the Cardinals came here, and they did well until people realized the level of play was very mediocre. You figured the Ozarks would go nuts for a Cardinals affiliate because the Ozarks are all about the Cardinals. In fact, this is their strongest base of support outside St. Louis metro, and that’s saying something for an organization that has fans from coast to coast. Springfield hadn’t had affiliated minor league baseball in 55 years, and that was a short stint with the Cubs in one of those low minor leagues. The Cardinals actually had an affiliate here in the 1930s and early 1940s, and it drew well before World War II came along and forced the cancellation of the league. It was too bad. Musial got his start here as an outfielder. How has the reception to the Springfield team been from the Cardinals organization? Instense, as you might expect. The Cardinals had wanted an affiliate here for a long time because Springfield is only three hours from St. Louis. They had strong ties with Little Rock, but that relationship soured a few years ago and led the Cardinals to take their Double-A affiliate to Connecticut and Knoxville. With their Double-A club here now, they are able to send guys out on injury rehab assignments here (Cal Eldred came here in June) and the farm director can drive from his office any time he wants. When the team was in Knoxville, they would have to take a flight out of St. Louis, then connect in Cincy. The thing is, they really did it right here. Hotel developer John Q. Hammons supplied the $32 million stadium, and the Cardinals put their best marketing people in Springfield to run the club. Honestly, it’s run like a big-league team. The professionalism from the front office makes my job so much easier because they don’t try to Mickey Mouse around or pull sophomoric stunts. They talk about representing the birds and the bat, and they mean it. It’s very refreshing for a minor-league beat writer because sometimes minor league franchises are run by people who are only out to make a buck and care little about their relationship with the local media. That’s not the case here. Any appearances from Walt Jocketty or other notables from the big club? If so, did you get the chance to talk to them some, and what was that like? Jocketty and assistant general manager John Mozeliak made visits here in mid-season. Jocketty came just a few weeks before the trade deadline and actually tracked me down just before a Sunday afternoon game to do an interview. I thought that said a lot, about Jocketty and the organization as a whole. When I was in spring training, it was tough to get an interview with Jocketty, what with all the circus atmosphere after Rick Ankiel’s decision and so many other things going on. Jocketty is a good baseball man. He wants to win and, when I interviewed him, he was honest about what the Cardinals hoped to get and what they could afford. In this business, where you interview notable names quite a bit, you can’t be awestruck because the job is to get information to the readers. Don’t get me wrong. It’s neat to be able to interview the general manager of the Cardinals, but I get a sense of accomplishment if I generate a solid story out of it. Tell us about some of the team’s most memorable games you experienced? What about some of the other things that made the season memorable? Obviously, the big-league Cardinals coming here for two exhibition games were the most memorable. I’ll never forget being in the clubhouse waiting for Albert Pujols and sitting in a chair to my left was Larry Walker. Walker gave me some good quotes in spring training about a funny episode when he was in Double-A baseball, but that day he was sitting there and telling me to interview Albert because, “I’ve had a terrible spring. You don’t want to interview me.” Looking back, that moment was very telling of what was to come for Walker, a player I always admired for his hard work and his love for the game. A few other games stand out. Rick Ankiel finished with 10 home runs in 28 games, and that home run binge started with a 13th-inning, walk-off homer. I’ll also remember a crazy game in early June when the Cardinals were playing the Royals’ Double-A affiliate and it ended on Juan Diaz’s walk-off homer. The place went nuts.It was also neat to see opposing players come through, too. Jared Weaver made a couple of late-season starts, and people need to remember the name Howie Kendrick. He’ll be the Angels second baseman before too long. Give us an idea about the relationship within the overall organization in regards to player development. How do they coordinate in regards to making player decisions? For example, how would the Cardinals organization work with the Springfield team to make a decision on shifting a young pitcher from a starting role to a relief role? Good question. This is the challenge of every farm system and I can tell you that the Cardinals put tons of thought into every decision they make. In the case of pitchers, the main thing is they give them every chance to succeed. I often remind our readers that the Springfield Cardinals are not playing for the Texas League championship but rather to improve to the point they can help the big-league team win the NL pennant. If a pitcher is struggling, they’ll keep sending him out there after maybe tweaking a thing here or there. If he can’t correct it, only then will they consider a move to the bullpen. I think we saw both sides of that this year. Chris Lambert and Stuart Pomeranz struggled after being promoted from Palm Beach. Pomeranz changed his delivery and had success in his final few starts. Lambert showed some signs of success, and it was unfortunate that he lasted only two-thirds of an inning in the final game of the year. Really, he hit a wall in mid-season and looked tired the rest of the way. But they’ll keep trotting him out to the mound so he can get a handle on Double-A, and I think he’ll be successful next year. Another example is Reid Gorecki. He struggled and struggled, and they kept giving him chances until it was clear that he needed to go back to Palm Beach. It was a good move. I think he got his confidence back and will come back here next year ready to do some damage. Who would you say the team’s top position player this year? Pitcher? What kind of impact did they have on the team? Top position player was Travis Hanson, the third baseman. A super nice guy, one of those players you pull for. He was also the hardest worker, staying long after games to do work in the weight room. Hanson not only gave them a left-handed bat, but he also impacted the team by never wanting to come out of the lineup. That went over well in the clubhouse. The top pitcher was left-hander Randy Leek, a guy from Long Island. He is pushing 30, but he showed the younger guys that you don’t have to have a 100 mph fastball to win. He changed speeds and knew when to use his fastball. And two years after Tommy John surgery, he’ll be coming back. -------------------------- Okay, be sure to check back Friday for Part Two; we'll really jump into the prospect talk. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised at what you hear. And of course, lots more Rick Ankiel talk.

World Baseball Classic

2005-12-13T21:22:00.000-05:00

Having been so focused on the Cardinals and their various roster issues, I confess to having paid little attention to all the news surrounding the World Baseball Classic. I like the concept, and it certainly seems like a good idea, even though it smacks a bit of Selig-esque marketing zaniness. The biggest question I have concerns the risk to players getting paid oodles of money by their respective MLB teams getting hurt in the tournament. It's probably nothing to worry about, but I doubt fans of team whose star gets injured and their season tanks will look back very fondly at the World Baseball Classic. It's also a pretty significant distraction to Spring Training. However, on the positive side, it's really important for lots of major league players who will have the first chance to represent their countries in a meaningful way. I'm sure for a lot of guys that outweighs the risk involved.

Hot Stove Haiku Contest Winners!

2005-12-13T16:44:00.000-05:00

And now, the moment you've all been waiting for, The Hot Stove Haiku Contest Winners! We put out a call for entries in two categories, Cardinals related and all MLB related. In the first category the winner gets a 1985 Fleer Terry Pendleton rookie card; in the second category, the winner gets a 1977 Topps Bruce Sutter rookie card. In the Cardinals related category, the winning entry comes from Eric M. urinals for sale busch III, a cash cow for sure all for deivi cruz In the all MLB category, the winner comes to us from Doug G. a sun burns many hands the pitcher gets richer still Manny weeps alone Many congrats to the big winners. Of course, everyone who sent us a haiku is a winner; consider yourself enriched. We had about a hundred or so entries when it was all said and done, which is way more than we expected. (Quite frankly, we're thrilled to know that a hundred people even bother to read this site.) I guess the lure of $2 worth of baseball cards ignited the fires of creativity within you all. Huge thanks to Deadspin, Viva El Birdos, and Bellyitcher for posting the contest announcement. We'll be contacting the winners shortly, just in time for you to give the gift of baseball cards.

Looping Back

2005-12-13T12:42:00.000-05:00

Oh uh, don't look now, but it seems the Cubs and Jacque "I'm Not French" Jones have some interest in each other. They must have wanted a big upgrade from Burnitz. As a Cards fan, you have to hope this works out, especially with all of the lefties we have in the pen now. Jones 2005 vs. LHP: .201/.247/.370 -------------------- If Braden Looper were to accept an offer from the Cards (you have to think Philly's reported interest would be more lucrative though), it would be something of a homecoming for the right hander. The Cards picked Looper in the first round (third overall pick) of the 1996 draft, and you were meticulous about keeping your scorecards from 1998, you'd see his name on them in four games (3.1 innings pitched) that season. Looper went to Florida in the deal for Renteria after that season, where the Marlins accelerated (detrimentally, IMO) the 24 year old's development by working him for 83 innings in 1999. If Looper were to sign with the Cards for a decent salary and if he were to pitch well for us, it would be kind of a weird, karmatic situation in a year that saw Renteria traded from Boston after being a $10M bust. Maybe it's a stretch, but still... Looper's 2005 flopped, especially in light of a career year in 2004. Let's go to the stats. 2004: EqERA 3.12; VORP 24.8; 6.48 k/9; 3.75 k/BB; 9.29 h/9; 0.54 hr/9; 2.70 G/F 2005: EqERA 4.74; VORP 5.3; 4.10 k/9; 1.23 k/BB; 9.89 h/9; 1.06 hr/9; 1.79 G/F Career: 5.61 k/9; 1.73 k/BB; 9.12 h/9; 0.72 hr/9; 2.00 G/F Looper struggled with his control last year, walking more, striking out fewer, and getting killed by the long ball. LaRussa and Duncan must like that he's a ground ball pitcher and believe they work with him and get him to cut down on his walks. The Cards, and other interested teams, view him as an 8th inning set up man, but he'll have to fare better against lefties going forward than he did last year, .336/.408/.578 against. He's never been particularly effective versus the left-side hitters, but he did manage to limit their effectiveness to a .765 OPS in 2004, .754 in 2003, and .753 in 2002. He's a project for sure, hence his willingness for the one year deal in a season of five year deals, but at 31 the former Cardinal draft pick is hardly finished. It will be interesting to see what kind of offers he is getting. Has anyone out there heard anything regarding dollar values being discussed? I've said before that I am a firm believer in relievers being prone to the really bad year (and the really good year for that matter) from time to time. When you also consider Duncan's track record with guys in this situation, and removing the pressure of closing (and doing it in NYC), I'm inclined to think this guy might not be a bad addition. He made +$5M last season, but I would think he'd command less for 2006, the most risky assumption of all in the current market. At the right price though, he could replace Tavarez and have an important role in a year without Al Reyes. Your thoughts?

Two Cents for Clemens

2005-12-12T16:56:00.000-05:00

This is hardly recent news, but since it likely impacts that NL Central, I'll comment on it. Props to the Astros for not offering Clemens arbitration. Of course, as a Cards fan I had hoped they would, tying up precious resources in one of the game's oldest, greatest, and most self-important player. They would have been committing terrific amounts of resources to keeping Clemens happy catering to the myriad of demands in his contract. In the lead up to the arbitration deadline, Roger had done his usual dance about whether or not to retire, whether or not a team might make it worth while for him to stay in the game, yada yada yada. What a diva. Now a free agent, the rumors have begun in earnest about where he might wind up, New York, Boston, Arlington, etc. Now we can say thanks for the cheapness of the Cards ownership, not to mention the sound management policies of Jocketty, and take comfort in the fact that he won't be wearing Birds on Bat next year. [p.s. if you start that rumor, I will personal find you and make you listen to a non-stop week of sports talk radio, heinous torture not even fit for Abu Gharib] Don't take too much glee in the fact that we might not face him as an Astro next year, though. It sounds like, since they signed Ausmus, that he might just rest his old bones till May 1, and in order to have some gas in the tank come October. Of course, I can't imagine he'd comeback even then for free.

Luck and Our Own Left-orium

2005-12-12T09:26:00.002-05:00

Some good news for Cardinals fans today, as Orioels SS Miguel Tejada states that he would prefer to stay in Baltimore. This is good news because the Cubs, as noted around the web, were the frontrunners to acquire him, scamming the Orioels by swapping Mark Prior (lemon alert) or Carlos Zambrano (soon to be lemon). Our line up stands pat, and the Cubs go with the unreasonably priced Neifi. Then again, they don't have Aaron Miles at second base. Best of luck to you Matty Mo. Enjoy San Francisco, and $9M a season. Turn on your love light Giants fans. So we signed a big LOOGY in Ricardo Rincon. While his performance last year, even against lefties, probably made people in Oakland hock-a-loogy and think about spitting it at him, he has had success sending lefty hitters back to the dugout frustrated. His 2005 aside, he had good numbers AS A LOOGY in 2004, allowing only 18 hits (1 HR) and .200/.247/.278 while facing 90 hitters standing on the left side of the plate. Personally, I am of the mind that relief pitchers, especially highly specialized ones, are highly susceptible to a stinker season every so often, with luck figuring into that equation to a degree. His peripherals last year were consistent with his career numbers, and his ground ball/fly ball rate actually improved. (Do you think that the Cards' organization really emphasizes the value of the G/F stat?) Anyway, as cynical as I have been about the junk players we've picked up this fall, I think he might actually be a decent one for us, as long as he's never allowed outside of the LOOGY role. Now, with the season still almost four months away, the Cards have four lefties in the bullpen: Cali, Flores, Tyler Johnson, and Rincon. So we have Flores and Rincon (Rincon based on age, experience, and TLR's disdain for young arms) as the top two lefties in the pen, with Cali and Johnson as the young replacements. I don't know how the organization views Cali, but in two short stints with the big club in 2004 and 2005 he didn't fair well. Cali, 27, and Johnson, 25, may both get opportunities with St. Louis next summer, but will probably start in the season in Memphis after Spring Training.

National Scam

2005-12-11T09:37:00.000-05:00

As you've probably heard by now, Washington, DC (where I live) has tentatively agreed upon a lease for a new baseball stadium. I don't roll out the soap box very often here, but in an effort to keep my blood pressure down, I'm making an exception. Let me first say that Major League Baseball belongs in DC. There's a historical precedent for it, and fans are ready for a team. I have no hard and fast personal rule when it comes to public financing of stadiums. I would say that I am generally against it, as owners who build the stadium out of their own pockets get enough corporate welfare in the way of tax breaks, easements, and other things (ahem, Busch Stadium III) that the public always shares a little bit of the cost. Before baseball was allowed to return to DC, Selig forced the city to approve a stadium deal, a negotiating chip made that much more powerful by the fact that the team was owned by MLB. Mayor Condo, er I mean Williams, adamant that baseball be his legacy and political calling card, obliged. Skip forward a year, after some contentious wrangling and woefully inadequate cost estimating work, and here we are. Okay, okay, why am I pissed off? How exactly will the public foot the $535 million bill (likely to be more)? From the Washington Post:

"The bulk of the money would be paid through a gross receipts tax on businesses as well as taxes on utilities and stadium concessions."

Hmm, I'm perfectly willing to let money collected from the beers (which constitute an ample number) I purchase at the games go to paying for the stadium. However, I am not particularly excited to see an increase in my utilities, and the effects that tax increase will have on numerous other expenses. An additional tax on businesses hits the wallet as well, making all the crap we buy even more expensive. DC is an incredibly expensive place to live, and I've lived in Aspen, Colorado. Finding a one bedroom apartment here that rents for less than $1100/month is damn near impossible. But the expenses are not limited to that, groceries are costly, and the fuel prices are among the most expensive in the nation, and throughout the summer they were THE most expensive. For many people here, heating oil and gas are used to heat homes. Taxing utilities so that baseball and whatever owners wind up winning Bud's lottery is ridiculously unfair. Niether my wife or I could afford to live here are all on just one of our individual salaries. However, we are among the relatively fortunate here, as most residents in the city work in the service sector for low wages that can't keep up with the rising costs of living. Poverty is incredibly high, and the cost of living makes it very difficult for working people to join the ranks of the middle class - and they can forget about ever owning a place of their own. Anyway, without delving further into urban sociology, guess who really gets hit with a tax on utilities? The very people that can rarely afford to go to the Nationals games, except as folks making $6/hour selling concessions or cleaning the stadium. It's a rip off, pure and simple. MLB and the new owners are going to make a mint off of owning a stadium and a team, MLB even gets a cut of the parking dollars for chipping in a paltry $20 million and guaranteeing the rent in case of strike or terrorist attack, true patriots, only supporting the greater good if they can benefit from it. I don't suppose the new owners and Bud would chip in for my rent, utilities, and transportation costs, so can get to work and back to make the money I'll need to pay the taxes for the stadium. Fortunately, we live in a democracy, and as a citizen I can make my voice heard before the city council votes on the deal this month. Yap, I can make my voice heard at the public hearing to be held Tuesday morning at 10 a.m., when, like most people, I'll be at work. Yessir, democracy is a great thing! Maybe the we can get the cities homeless population, numbering around 30,000, to fill the hearing, except they'd have to register by 5 p.m. on Monday to attend the meeting. I really pulled for baseball to be in DC, and I still think it should be here. However, I won't have Selig, the new owners (who you know Seilg has already selected), and the city government hold me upside down and shake out my pockets in order to get baseball to stay here. Fuck it. Move the team to Las Vegas if this is how it has to be done. As a Cardinals fan, it adds a little salt to an open wound, as the owners stand to make some money on this, money that could well have been used to upgrade the team's roster.

Festivus Calls

2005-12-10T11:13:00.000-05:00

I should probably just stop thinking about filling the holes in the Cards' roster, relax enjoy the Holiday season, write some seasonal cards to friends and family, enjoy a hot toddy, or two, watch the Charlie Brown Christmas show for the 29th time...you get the idea. But I can't, alt dot nerd dot obsessive. The big free agent targets are off the market, and throwing out absurd rumors like the team trading for Tejada, Abreu, A-Rod, Cabrera, etc. wastes time and energy that might be better used on other delusional pipe dreams. Now you have to get creative. Letting Taguchi, et al fill one of the outfield spots works fine. For the other spot, here's something I wouldn't be terribly upset to see: trading for Milton Bradley. If they can still get him cheap, the rumored swap with the Cubs for Todd Walker may well make his price too high, and by too high, I mean Jason Marquis or Wainwright. Maybe they'd take Chris Duncan or Scott Seabol or a player of the middling AAA/major league ready variety. Bradley's a headcase and questionable injuries have dogged him, but it's a high risk/high reward situation. Although if we could get him with a suggestion like those above, the risk would be mitigated somewhat by the low cost. Anyway, mull that over. Send in your poems, and check back here on Tuesday to see the winning entries. There's another treat coming up next week, an inside look at the Springfield Cardinals, our AA affiliate.

Reconsidering MaMo

2005-12-09T13:59:00.000-05:00

I keep thinking that should read MoMA, but anyway... I just had a thought about the resigning of Matty Mo. I've been firmly in the camp that thinks resigning him is a bust; however, I just got the crazy idea that it might be useful. If the Cards really could get him to take a "hometown discount" and if the contract did not include a "no-trade" clause, he might be useful as another trade chip. I know, I know, this is a real long shot, but if teams are really as ready to make a move for them as they seem to be, he could garner at least one of the lineup cogs we need. Think about it, given the conditions above (big ifs), you might trade him for a solid, Wilkerson-esque outfielder. Teams might take a little more risk with regards to his abilities given a salary reduced from the $8M he's likely to garner on the open market. Even if they wait until the season starts, he could put up some early success with a little rest and recoup time in the offseason, a la 2005, giving us the option to sell high. Of course, he's pretty much declared his lack of interest in playing for the hometown discount.

Discount City

2005-12-09T09:03:00.000-05:00

From today's Post-Dispatch: Jocketty said at this week's winter meetings that he hoped Morris might extend a "home team discount" to the Cardinals. He reiterated the stance Thursday, saying, "I hope Matt would sign for less here than somewhere else. He may not. But we'd like to have him back." This statement has all kinds of things wrong with it. First, as a Cardinals fan, I'm just not sure I would feel very optimistic about having Morris back in 2006. You remember the two sides of Matty Mo last year; do you really want to risk signing the guy the who lost five in a row last after the All-Star break? He was never steady after July, and his curve ball just got listed on the striped down oil industry version of the endangered species act. Not to mention he won't be setting up very many batters with his 88 MPH fast ball. The second part of the that statement is the sheer insincerity of it. "Sure, Matt we wanted you back all along." Just as soon as they made a run at two other pitchers before DeWitt yanked the (golden) choke chain. "Oh, and by the way, would mind taking a discount? Come on, we got a great new sauna in the locker room." Why wouldn't he take the pay cut? I really couldn't blame Matt for taking a discount and heading out to SF for bigger bucks. Hey, Brett Tomko's available, might take the "you played here once hometown discount." Someone might want to pass along that the hometown discount usually only works when the ownership is really committed to winning. Final thought on the Lukewarm Stove. Yesterday, a friend of mine who shares a similar obsessiveness about baseball sent me an email that read, "Happy Holidays...who's that out in front of you, oh it's the Cubs." It might be a long summer. Big thanks to Deadspin for the link to Hot Stove Haiku this week. The entries are pouring in, so you had better send yours right away. I'll be posting almost all of them on the site through the winter...publish or perish you know. I also wanted to direct your attention to the latest member of the Cards web family, Seeing Red (apologies to Joe over there for not getting a link up sooner).

Is It Bleak Yet?

2005-12-08T13:27:00.000-05:00

From Rich Lederer at The Baseball Analysts: "This offseason has been characterized as much by the moves the St. Louis Cardinals haven't made as the moves the San Diego Padres have made. It's a fact that the Padres have been busier than rush hour on the Interstate 5, and it's fiction to think that the Cardinals have done anything other than auction off a bunch of player lockers and urinals from old Busch Stadium." Rich's column offers some of the best insight into the off-season wheelings and dealings throughout the league. With a little insight from Cards fan/blogger HOFer Brian Gunn, the piece reserves a few paragraphs to examine what the Cardinals' lack of moves means, and the question "end of an era?" is posed to the reader. Go read it, and then start to wonder.

Miles from Nowhere

2005-12-08T10:23:00.000-05:00

By now, you know that the Cards got Aaron Miles and Larry Bigbie for Ray King. The biggest looser in this deal is King, his .446 SLG against in 2005 will look awfully ugly at Coors Field. Bigbie figures to be a platoon outfielder who, hopefully, will never face a southpaw in his tour of duty with the Redbirds. Aaron Miles. Aaron Miles. I have to confess something here. Last spring, I drafted Aaron Miles in one of my fantasy leagues because there were so few second basemen I didn’t want to waste an early round pick on Jeff Kent or Soriano when I could be drafting sure-things Miggy Cabrera or Mark Teixeira. I thought, “Hell, he’s good for a few steady points each week at Coors Field.” In the early part of the season, I was right. He proved to be a more than adequate second baseman, the weakest link on an otherwise killer team, until he got injured, and I picked up Mark Ellis. (In the end, it was Carpenter’s terrible September that cost me the championship, how ironic.) In spite of my fantasy strategy, I don’t endorse the idea of Miles starting at second base on the team that has carried way too many of my hopes and dreams for almost thirty years. Hopefully, Miles’ role projects as nothing more than a steady replacement that gives the Cards a decent glove and a warm body to bat eighth when whatever El Cheapo relic we get to start at that position is injured. Hobbyists versus Realists Allover the American West, wealthy robber barons from all kinds of industries – from Ralph Lauren to Michael Eisner – sweep up massive chucks of land and call them ranches. For most, these are nothing more than expensive hobbies. Other folks of this ilk buy a baseball team. The team is a nice addition to a portfolio. Like the ranch, it’s a nice place to bring your friends AND make you a little money at the same time. Unfortunately, this mindset hogties (to keep the Western analogies going) the team’s general management, giving them the leeway to bring in 3.5 million fans and the money that goes along with it, but not enough to spend the money to make a championship team, that might potentially bring in even more money. It’s just a hobby, not a serious enough business to be risking “real” money. I am not advocating that the Cards take a Steinbrenner approach, doling out cash wherever they can, but occasionally investing a little bit more for the right player that would put your team over the edge hardly means plunking down $100 million for you starting rotation. Hell, even Billy Beene spends a little extra cash in the right situation to make his team a little more competitive. Okay, maybe Loaiza isn’t that guy but you get the point.)

Hurry Up and Wait!

2005-12-07T16:31:00.000-05:00

Hey there, are you an aging second baseman in need of a major league roster position to turn his career around? Are you willing to take a one year contract in order to perform at a level more consistent with your early thirties in the hopes that you can then turn around and bilk another team out of two or three years and upwards of $12 million? A high risk for injury WILL NOT disqualify you for this position. Than have we got the job for you! Come man the keystone for the second most storied franchise in all of baseball. Fernando Vina, Brett Boone…the list of candidates to play second base for the Cards next year just keeps getting better and better. At this point, Grudzielanek is one of the better options for us, except he wants $3M and at least a couple of seasons and might well get that to play in Flushing. So, once again the Cards will be forced to grab someone off the junk heap, and, if you play the odds, their luck has to run out with that trick at some point. Remember, they considered Roberto Alomar, now retired, for the job last year. Hey, I bet Tony Womack could be had for a handful of beads and a sack of gunpowder. Whether or not you agree that Jocketty’s approach to the Burnett sweepstakes represented solid business management or not, you have to be a little frustrated with the same old tired “stick to the plan” approach. Waiting on Burnett (or Renteria) as the first in a chain of events to fill and improve the roster is also a risky and costly strategy. While waiting, the Cards could have easily proceeded on other fronts. It may have changed their plans in regards to Burnett, but might have improved the team significantly in other areas. Now, they scramble for a few has-beens to round out the roster for one more year staying within the financial guidelines spelled out by ownership. Brian Gunn, in the comments section over at Birdos, notes that we may look back next year from the perspective of a few games back in the division at the Luis Castillo to Minnesota trade with some serious regret. That might not be the only one we regret come October 2006, Brian.

Hot Stove Haiku: The Contest

2005-12-07T11:00:00.000-05:00

Cards offer stays at four

blue jay sings a richer song

hot stove burns Jock's hand

We asked for your hot stove haikus, and you sent them to us. Now, in an effort to promote a more Zen-like approach to hot stove analysis, and less of the all-night internet binges marked with a zeal rivaled only by the most enthusiastic of Warcraft players, Cardinals Diaspora expands hot stove haiku mania with a contest, with real prizes sure to supplement your 401K. Here's how it works:

Send us your best Hot Stove Haiku, either posting it in the comments (be sure to log in so we can get in touch should you win) or emailing it to us at cards_diaspora@yahoo.com, enter "haiku" in the subject line.
There are two categories: the first is for haikus related to the Cardinals (likely to be fairly minimal given our lack of activity), and the second category covers the rest of MLB.
The deadline for submissions is Monday, December 12.
Our staff editor (a Japanese lit major...from Chico State) with then select the winner in each category, with the top five in each category to be posted on this site - the most visited baseball related site on the web with the word Diaspora in its name.
The prizes: The winner in the all-MLB category gets a 1977 Topps #144 Bruce Sutter rookie card. In the Cardinals category, you win a 1985 Fleer #236 Terry Pendleton rookie card. (Call your accountant now, because you just got bumped into a higher tax bracket!)
Please remember, this is just for fun.

Get to work.

The Biggest Cardinals News of the Day

2005-12-06T19:55:00.000-05:00

Did you see old friend Steve Kline is headed to San Francisco in a swap for Latroy Hawkins? I wonder if Kline can pull it back together reunited with Mike Matheny? Highly dubious. Only Kline, to sound perfectly like a teacher, can straighten out Kline.

Now What?

2005-12-06T13:37:00.000-05:00

Okay, so now we have to move on from the Burnett scenarios that shaped our expectations of the 2006 roster. In a cursory analysis, I think the rotation as is still allows us to be competitive; however, the secondary value of acquiring Burnett allowed us to trade Marquis to fill our outfield or second base needs. The lineup, as it now stands, most seriously impacts our ability to compete. Sure, with Eckstein, Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen, it’s still quite potent, but of those four, the only two we can really depend on for 150 games are Pujols and Eck. With Rolen back, the lineup is automatically better than last year’s mix and match version that rarely (ever?) included a healthy and fully productive Walker, Sanders, or Rolen in it. So we need to sign a free agent starting pitcher in order to free up another starting pitcher as a trade chip to improve the lineup – damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Signing Giles might not have been such a bad idea after all, huh? Now what? The first question is whether or not to continue along this prescribed path of events. The best of the remaining free agent pitchers is Millwood, whose agent Scott Boras wants a five year deal, and given the deals for Byrd and Loaiza, you can just assume that Millwood costs around $10M per year. Reportedly, Seattle is close to signing him anyway. Jeff Weaver, also represented by Boras, is available, but you’d have to be smoking crack to sign him at the price he will demand. Washburn would be a good option, and a lefty, but he also calls Boras “daddy.” Ken Rosenthal thinks the Cards will be going after Vazquez, which would involve a trade with Arizona. Vazquez is also just 29 years old, and has two years and $24M left on his contract. Vazquez brings a nice 4.17 K/BB rate, 8.01 K/9, and a G/F ratio or 1.19 from Phoenix last year. Just what are they likely to trade for him? Assume Marquis or Suppan is part of that deal. My preference would be to keep the reliable Suppan. Supe is a $7M pitcher in the current market, and we have him signed for $4M. Who else? Wainwright maybe? Vazquez would be a better option than keeping Morris, who is now worth at least $8M per season and three or four years. Vazquez. Great. Now all of our trade chips are spent, leaving us with Taguchi and Rodriguez surrounding Edmonds in the OF, and a bench, solid with those two on it, featuring only poor depth. Oh, and who’s on second? Kind of getting depressing to think about all this, huh? I know it never made it past the speculation stage, but the idea of trading Edmonds to the Yankees for Cano and Wang (he he) sounds much better now. It fills our need at second, with quality for years to come, and gives us another starting pitcher, thus the depth to deal again. So the Cards make that trade, Cano slots in at number two in the batting order and they can trade Marquis (or whoever out of Jason, Supe, or Wang that brings the most return) for Wilkerson or another outfielder. They also still have cash to make free agent signings for the bullpen and/or the other corner outfield spots. Saying farewell to Jimmy would be tough, but there’s nothing like a winning a team to heal the pain of a broken heart.

Well...

2005-12-06T09:48:00.000-05:00

...Damn! Enjoy Toronto. It's like an American city, but clean and safe. It also does have some excellent restaurants, waaaay better hockey than St. Louis, too. Also, enjoy the American League, have fun pitching to the Red Sox and Yankees four or five times each season! You could have been facing the Cubs, Pitrates, and Astros (regular season version) on a regular basis, oh well. Most of all, thanks. Thanks (some thanks is to be shared with the Blue Jays) on behalf of the entire league for making sure even the most middling starting pitchers (Jeff Weaver, anyone?) will now get five year contracts on the basis of...of, well, a decent season and flashes of potential. Baseball is better for your having taken these actions. Free agent pitchers for all time should send the Blue Jays' front office a Holiday Ham as a thank you for picking up the slack with Burnett and B.J. Ryan in a season when even the Yankees have embraced some fiscal sensibility.

Sure He's Expensive, but...

2005-12-05T11:09:00.000-05:00

I confess to getting somewhat giddy at the prospect of having A.J. Burnett as part of the Cardinals' rotation. While there are still a few critics out there, and a five year deal could give anyone reservations, I would recommend a pleasant acceptance of it all. Think about what the Cards are getting here. According to the 2006 Bill James Handbook, Burnett's the hardest thrower in the majors. While that's impressive for the cheers it's likely to elicit when those three digit numbers show up on the board at Busch Stadium v3.0, that's nothing compared to his peripherals: 2.51 K/BB and 8.53 K/9. But here's what must have really grabbed Duncan and LaRussa's attention, he posted a 2.42 ground ball/fly ball ratio, with a career G/F ratio of 1.44. With a little tutelage from Duncan, Burnett could be a really, really good pitcher. Yes, his stats at home were better, but his road stats were hardly pedestrian.

Grudz to Mets

2005-12-05T09:11:00.000-05:00

The Mets may be close to a deal with 2B Mark Grudzielanek, Peter Gammons mentioned on the tele (more info at the Hot Stove Report). If the Cards do get Burnett all wrapped up today, they can start thinking about the keystone. However, I suspect they'll address the OF and the bullpen first. Hope Marquis has a good realtor.

May I Cut In? Cubs Interested in Burnett too.

2005-12-04T18:31:00.000-05:00

Word this evening is that the Cubs are now jumping into the Burnett melee. It sounds fishy, for a team not in need of starting pitching, this might be more of a tactic to keep him off the Cards. Maybe they make an offer just a little more than the Cards' offer, Toronto, desperately wanting to compete in the AL East, panics and offers the 5th year and more money. I don't know. What does concern me most about this, is that the Cubs have money and a desperate, irrational front office. The Cubs also want to pursue Damon, which will require a truckload of cash, to pursue Damon and Burnett would divert from getting other needed resources. Here's another question, while I'm wasting precious time playing armchair GM for the hated Cubs, why are they not in on the Abreu trade sweepstakes?

All Quiet on the Central Front

2005-12-04T09:17:00.000-05:00

Confession: I can't handle another stove/cooking metaphor while discussing or reading about baseball's off-season personnel acquisition activities. And if there's one thing that baseball ardently adheres to, its metaphors are sacrosanct. However, in spite of being innundated (I bear some guilt as well) with hackneyed metaphors, I remain resolutely fixated on the Hot Stove League. How else could I have justified spending an hour reading and analyzing Furcal signing with the Dodgers, when I should be devoting that energy to a 10-2 fantasy football season? Detachment, in the Buddhist sense, is the secret to fantasy football success, but only sheer obsessivness explains the former. The reason the Furcal news is so interesting is mostly because it seemed the Cubs and their fans took it for granted that the former Braves shortstop would be playing on the Northside next season. He was projected as the missing link in their hopes of contention. Alas, he opted for a deal that will make him richer in both the short and long term, playing for a once storied franchise mired in some turmoil. The Cubs can still get their much needed leadoff hitter, albeit a less talented on than Furcal, but it won't get any easier or cheaper. Juan Pierre seems the next most logical choice, with both Furcal and Luis Castillo off the market now, and they'll compete with the Yankees for him. I will wait until the Cards sign Burnett to revel in schadenfreude. With Furcal having slipped away, the NL Central remains relatively silent in moves and acquisitions, except for the Cubs paying outlandish sums for middle relief. Rumors swirl around the wants and desires of the Cards and the Cubs, but the news and activity by the other teams is somewhat minimal, the Reds' marquee Journell signing aside. The Cards and our rivals to the North are essentially the only teams with both the financial means and the ability and pressure to make a run for the World Series. The Cards, right now, have a lot ore needs to fill than the Cubs, so I'll hope that the stove heats... damn...hope that Jocketty fires up...ahh...hope that the guns of December roar to life with news of roster holes being filled in St. Louis. (Hey, a bad WWI analogy beats another stove one in this case.)

Byrd in the Hand, Burnett in a Busch; Plus, an OF Choice

2005-12-03T12:59:00.000-05:00

Righty starter Paul Byrd, who turns 35 today, is likely to get a much better birthday present than you did, a contract worth at least $22 million over three years. According to the Kansas City Star, the Royals, needing aging free agents like you need an 8-cylinder SUV, made Byrd the 3 year/$22M offer. This represents an offer driven by the unusual (I think) one given by the Athletics to Loaiza. "Okay, so what does this mean for the Cardinals?" you ask. A couple things. First some perspective, if Burnett accepts the Cardinals offer of four guaranteed years at ~$10M/per and an incentive based options for a fifth, it gives the Cards a 29 year old, top of the rotation power pitcher, with proven talent, likely to mature and give the Cards some good, productive seasons. Some point to the price tag and length of the contract, but think about the $10M/4 years versus what teams are likely to pay for Paul Byrd, a 35 year old (37 at the end of his potential contract) steady third starter. Burnett isn't cheap, but he could be really good deal. Here's another question for all the Hot Stove philosophers out there; it concerns the much ballyhooed Bobby Abreu and Jim Edmonds trade rumors. Ownership insists upon a payroll in the $90M neighborhood, but if the Cards sign Burnett, trade for Abreu, and keep Edmonds, payroll jumps to the $100M neighborhood. This is purely back-of-the-napkin math (VEB has made numerous versions of a roster matrix reflecting payroll based on the numerous roster moves), but I came up with the $100M figure simply by adding up the main pitchers (Carp, Supe, Mulder, Burnett*, and Izzy) and starting position players (Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Eck, and Abreu*), essentially the million $$ plus contracts, without the bullpen or the bench or even Taguchi and Molina. Any trade involving Abreu is directly linked to removing payroll elsewhere, i.e. it's Edmonds OR Abreu, not both. Personally, I'd probably take Abreu over JEd, just because of his offensive production, age, and probability of injury. The 2006 Bill James Handbook predicts JEd to create 110 runs next season and Abreu to create 124. However, the loss of Edmonds glove in the OF hurts the team's fielding, but his age and risk of injury may have that same effect anyway. It's a tough call; which one would you rather see on the '06 Cards, pros, cons, and all?

Financial Maturity

2005-12-02T10:34:00.000-05:00

By now you've probably read about the Cardinals offer to A.J. Burnett, if not, the Post-Dispatch has picked it up (after the online community had reported the news) here. The Cardinals, wisely, made a very reasonable offer in a free agent market gone mad with pitcher contracts. Four years at $10 million with a performance-based option for a fifth, constitutes rather smart business by the current standards. [If you're not convinced the market is crazy go read about 38 year old Tom Gordon's deal with the Phillies.] However, the Blue Jays have put in an offer for 5 guaranteed years and somewhere in the neighborhood of $60 million bucks (via The Hot Stove Report). If Burnett takes the Cards' offer, he'll take it because it affords him (still quite handsomely) the chance to play for a team he grew up cheering for in Arkansas. This would give fans good reason to applaud him, and could well signal some maturity on the part of a talented pitcher who damaged his reputation a bit with his end-of-season antics in the Marlins' clubhouse. We'll know soon if he makes the right move.

Abreu, Abreu, Abreu

2005-12-01T14:10:00.000-05:00

Don't get too carried away by the Abreu-to-Cards rumors. Talk of a possible Abreu-for-Manny trade is gathering intensity, and there seems to be a fairly high level of seriousness around it (isn't there always). The latest today comes from Gotham Baseball, the folks who got the Edmonds trade talk heated up again early this morning. Of course, this all could just represent an effort to drive up the Mets' offering for Manny. Who the hell knows anymore? At this point, the only thing that wouldn't surprise me would be Jock making a trade or two that none of us even thought about. On the Edmonds trade talk, sometimes we have to be willing to part with our favorite superstars. St. Louis sports fans seem to get hung up on a star way more than in other cities, and are even willing to tolerate loosing teams with bright and/or colorful stars. Maybe I'm wrong, since I've never really been a fan of teams anywhere else (except for the Chiefs). Edmonds is 35, and eventhough he's coming off a slump (relative) last year, he could rebound into a good 2006. However, the laws of the game, aging and all those other things dictate that Jimmy's numbers will now start to decline over the coming years. His playing style also gives him a much higher chance of getting injured, always a problem with those defense at all costs guys, and to be honest, I would not be the least bit surprised to Jimmy play less than the 152 James predicts for him in the 2006 Handbook. We love Jim Edmonds, and to see him carry the torch of great Cardinal centerfielders a little longer would be fantastic. But, if a move like trading Edmonds can make the team better, allow us to seriously compete, then I can live with his departure. Trading Edmonds for Cano and Wang fills two Cardinal needs, and gives them some cash to replace Edmonds' power. Cano's a 22 year old stud at second base, and could man the keystone position for years to come. Wang has two downsides: I'd never be able to say his name without giggling, and watching him pitch is less exciting than listening to a Coldplay album. He also gives us a pitcher to trade should Jock sign Burnett too. Anyhow, I'm not endorsing this trade; I haven't really settled on one side or the other. My biggest hang-up with the theory that we make this one and go get Abreu is that it leaves the rest of our OF fairly weak at the plate and very so-so defensively in LF & CF.

Breaking News Is Breaking

2005-11-30T21:34:00.000-05:00

Just picked this up over in the Card Clubhouse forum, (here's the link). Cards and Burnett have an agreement in place. The tentative status of the agreement hinges on the offers Burnett gets from the O's and Jays, could be a key reason Jock demands silence. They will look to finalize it at the Winter Meetings next week, per the PR wishes of MLB. Here's the rest: [Diaspora commentary follows each point] Jason Marquis - They are working to ship him in a trade for an impact corner outfielder (Abreu?) or second baseman (Soriano? Castillo?). Clearly Marquis is a key part of any trade strategy. Is there a trade rumor not involving the angry one? Bobby Abreu - In talks with them but Baltimore may have a better offer. I just don't see this happening. Not that I wouldn't want Abreu on the team, but it defies logic. Luis Castillo/Mark Grudzielanek - Continue talks with Grudz. He should be cheaper than acquiring Luis. Yay! the 2B question may be solved. Grud's not a long-term solution, but he's a steady option for the 2006 team. Brad Wilkerson - Straight up trade for Marquis is possible. I like this deal, and whole heartedly endorse it. Wilke's a solid, young player, the perfect #2 hitter for the lineup, excellent OBP and a little power potential. He played injured this year and wasn't effectively used on the Nats, thus his 2005 slump. Should rebound to a good player, especially in the STL atmosphere. Brian Giles - Just give it up.. We are workin on other things. *apathy* Giles would have been nice, but this could work out much better. Don't forget to send us your Hot Stove Haiku (see below).

Bernie Thinks Soriano

2005-11-30T19:51:00.000-05:00

Bernie drops a few more bread crumbs over in his STLToday forum. He leaves the reader with Soriano as a final thought. Anything's possible, but remember, there's another motivation at work there and that's to bring readers into the site (an end which I'm helping to serve with the link above)...what better way to do that than with a few reasonable rumors. Is this for real? It does make more sense than Abreu. Who knows, anything's possible, but surely they'd at least stick him left field. I've finally started to get a little more dubious of the rumors. Haiku to follow soon.

Hot Stove Haiku

2005-11-30T16:36:00.000-05:00

Here's a haiku expressing what I think will happen based on the current rumors floating around the Card-nosphere. Why a haiku? Well, partially it's a nod to the fantasy baseball like creativity of some posters in forums and elsewhere, and the other reason...why the hell not! Angry Fish jumps in Sour singing Bird pushed from nest Brad to stand in grass Disagree? Submit your trade/acquisition ideas in the form of a haiku. I'll post the best ones on the Diaspora for all six to ten readers to see. (You can't afford not to have that kind of publicity!) Seriously, by now we've heard A LOT of trade and/or free agent ideas. Coming up with something dramatically new would be tough, so find a new way to express it through 5-7-5 syllables. I got a couple emails with Haiku as well, so feel free to post Haiku in the comments below or email them to me at rv_vanbib@yahoo (dot) com.

Abreu Odds Take a Hit

2005-11-30T09:12:00.000-05:00

Save for our Amish readers, by now you are familiar with the rampant speculation about a Cards trade for Philly's Bobby Abreu. Flipping through the trade rumors/news sites today, I stumbled upon this bit of interesting news at Matthew Cerrone's MetsBlog. Cerrone, whose hot stove reporting is connected with MLB sources, postulates that Abreu may well be off the market given Philly's trade of Jim Thome. He reasons that a primary motivation for moving Abreu, despite his low approval ratings from the team's blue collar fan base, was to open a spot in the OF for NL Rookie of the Year (and Missouri native) Ryan Howard. Abreu does also have a no-trade clause in his contract, not the biggest of hurdles, but an obstacle nevertheless. Something's in the works inside the Cards' front office, but an Abreu trade seems more and more unlikely.