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Saturday, December 03, 2005

 

Byrd in the Hand, Burnett in a Busch; Plus, an OF Choice

Righty starter Paul Byrd, who turns 35 today, is likely to get a much better birthday present than you did, a contract worth at least $22 million over three years. According to the Kansas City Star, the Royals, needing aging free agents like you need an 8-cylinder SUV, made Byrd the 3 year/$22M offer. This represents an offer driven by the unusual (I think) one given by the Athletics to Loaiza. "Okay, so what does this mean for the Cardinals?" you ask. A couple things. First some perspective, if Burnett accepts the Cardinals offer of four guaranteed years at ~$10M/per and an incentive based options for a fifth, it gives the Cards a 29 year old, top of the rotation power pitcher, with proven talent, likely to mature and give the Cards some good, productive seasons. Some point to the price tag and length of the contract, but think about the $10M/4 years versus what teams are likely to pay for Paul Byrd, a 35 year old (37 at the end of his potential contract) steady third starter. Burnett isn't cheap, but he could be really good deal. Here's another question for all the Hot Stove philosophers out there; it concerns the much ballyhooed Bobby Abreu and Jim Edmonds trade rumors. Ownership insists upon a payroll in the $90M neighborhood, but if the Cards sign Burnett, trade for Abreu, and keep Edmonds, payroll jumps to the $100M neighborhood. This is purely back-of-the-napkin math (VEB has made numerous versions of a roster matrix reflecting payroll based on the numerous roster moves), but I came up with the $100M figure simply by adding up the main pitchers (Carp, Supe, Mulder, Burnett*, and Izzy) and starting position players (Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Eck, and Abreu*), essentially the million $$ plus contracts, without the bullpen or the bench or even Taguchi and Molina. Any trade involving Abreu is directly linked to removing payroll elsewhere, i.e. it's Edmonds OR Abreu, not both. Personally, I'd probably take Abreu over JEd, just because of his offensive production, age, and probability of injury. The 2006 Bill James Handbook predicts JEd to create 110 runs next season and Abreu to create 124. However, the loss of Edmonds glove in the OF hurts the team's fielding, but his age and risk of injury may have that same effect anyway. It's a tough call; which one would you rather see on the '06 Cards, pros, cons, and all?
Comments:
god. it kills me to think of the cards sans jedmonds, but if he could finish off his career in NY with the spanks, who i loathe, then hell, take it sleazy jim. after last years' decline it just seems like a full year of a healthy and productive jim is probably unlikely, and abreu would pump us up, and maybe him and pujols would get into a season long homerun derby or something and they could tease rolen for being a puss and having a bad beard. HEY NO OFFENSE!
 
it really sounds alot more like a rumor than anything else. but i do remember a similar Edmonds-to-Yanks rumor last season.
 
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